Today’s breakdown of MLB sides offers up the Phillies as a team likely to put up some runs, while the Dodgers might be in a for a little surprise in Colorado.
Play 1: Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres – Phillies -1.5 (+125) Hard Rock Bet
The Padres continue their East Coast swing in Philadelphia after dropping a three-game set against the New York Mets, and things are not looking much better as they head down I-95 to face the NL East-leading Phillies.
And while betting the run line is always risky business, this match up is simply too good to pass up.
For the Phillies, lefty Christopher Sanchez will be taking the hill, and he has been just short of unhittable against lefties this year. This is not a surprise, as he’s basically been unhittable against lefties for the entirety of his short career. In a little over 200 plate appearances against lefties, Sanchez has given up the sum total of one home run, and opposing batters are hiting .214 against him.
Frankly, he’s been pretty darn good against righties as well — a .265 average, though he has given up 22 homers in 723 plate appearances.
The Padres are expected to send at least three lefties to face Sanchez, and the righties — outside of Fernando Tatis and Manny Machado — aren’t exactly what one might refer to as “threatening.”
Meanwhile, the Phillies will be facing off against Randy Vasquez, a righty who in his own short career hasn’t met a lefty he hasn’t turned into Babe Ruth. In 142 lifetime plate appearances, lefties have hit eight dingers and have a .402 wOBA against Vasquez. That wOBA matches Shohei Ohtani’s wOBA so far this year, to give some idea of what’s going on here.
The Phillies are expected to send at least a half-dozen lefties to face Vasquez tonight, and that, along with game time temperatures near 90 degrees with the wind blowing out to dead center, are a recipe for offensive success.
The Phillies should mash here, and the run line looks like the plus-money bet to make.
Play 2: Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers – Under 12 (-110) FanDuel
Yes, you read that correctly. I’m taking the under in a Dodgers game, at Coors Field, with temperatures in the 90s. Masochist? Maybe. But the numbers don’t lie.
Let’s start with James Paxton, taking the hill for the Dodgers. While Paxton isn’t the lights-out lefty he used to be, he’s also not too shabby. Lefties can’t hit him, and while righties can, sorta — a .159 ISO and .327 wOBA against righties so far this year — the Rockies lineup is putrid bordering on really putrid.
Injuries have decimated Colorado, and the team wasn’t looking that good to begin with. Over the last 30 days — despite playing nearly half of those games at Coors — the Rockies’ wOBA and ISO are below average, and this despite a .310 BABIP, good for fourth-highest.
So while any team at any time is dangerous at Coors, this version of the Rockies going up against Paxton isn’t setting off any alarm bells.
And then there’s the Dodgers, who inarguably have one of the best offenses in the game.
But tonight they’re starting the post-Mookie Betts portion of the season, as the superstar is on the shelf with a broken left hand. And while this team is still very obviously loaded, it’s going up against Cal Quantrill, who is very quietly putting together a quality campaign, especially considering where he pitches half his games.
Quite simply, Quantrill is getting ground balls at a 50% clip, isn’t being hit hard (at 44.3%), and the barrel percentage against him is at 6.4%. Both lefties and righties are struggling against Quantrill’s splitter and sinker, his two dominant pitches.
In fact, the only game Quantrill has struggled in over his last eight starts was against this Dodgers team.
So could the Dodgers explode against Quantrill at Coors? Of course they could. But to do so, they’re going to have to do what other teams have yet to do against him, namely hit the ball hard, long, and far.
I’m betting against that tonight.
Play 3: Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays – Under 7.5 (-115) BetMGM
This one is pretty simple. Two not-so-great offenses going up against two better-than-average pitchers. Easy-peasy, right?
Well, for purposes of this bet, yep.
While the Red Sox have been piecing together a decent year on the offensive side of the ball, they struggle against lefties, and they’ll be facing one in Yusei Kikuchi this evening. For starters, Boston strikes out at a 28.7% clip against lefties, the highest in the league. And when the Red Sox manage to put their bats on the ball against southpaws, the balls don’t travel too far, as the team has a paltry .124 ISO against lefties.
Kikuchi, meanwhile, has looked awesome this year, and his numbers across the board match the eye test.
On the other side of the ledger, Nick Pivetta is facing off against an uninspiring Blue Jays lineup. Pivetta has been a little all over the map this year, but when he’s on — as he was against Atlanta two weeks ago — he’s really, really on.
An underwhelming Toronto lineup + Pivetta at home = probably a good pitching performance.
Two decent pitchers, two not-great offenses, take the under.
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