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The results in Week 9 were a reminder that outside of the aberration that was the second half of the 2024 season, it’s hard to cash in by simply betting on NFL favorites to cover.Â
After betting favorites went 11-2 in Week 8, they were just 5-9 last week. And so far in Week 10, you’re 0-for-1 if you went with the chalk on Thursday Night Football, as Denver won just 10-7 as a heavy favorite.
Our favorite picks for today’s loaded slate include the under in what promises to be an ugly slog between the Jaguars and Texans, the Panthers to improve to 4-1 at home and the Lions to emphatically bounce back from their ugly loss to the Vikings last Sunday.
Jaguars (-1.5) at Texans — 1 p.m. (CBS)
No game on the board today — not even Browns-Jets — has a lower total than the AFC South matchup between Trevor Lawrence and Davis Mills down in Houston.Â
With CJ Stroud out for a Texans offense that has struggled all year, I wouldn’t be surprised if it only takes 17 points to win this game. While Houston (3-5, 1-1 AFC South) has been a mess offensively, this defense is outstanding.
That combination has helped five of the Texans’ games this year go under 40 total points. This afternoon, I expect A) another dominant day by Will Anderson Jr. and Co. and B) a rough showing by the Davis Mills-led offense. This unit is missing starting right guard Ed Ingram and tackle Tytus Howard, and starting kicker Ka’imi Fairbairn is also out today.
The Jaguars (5-3, 1-0 AFC South) are coming off an overtime win over the Raiders last Sunday, but before that, they had two of their worst games of the year in losses to the Seahawks and Rams. With Lawrence’s top two receivers, Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter, sidelined, it’s hard to envision Jacksonville moving the football on arguably the best defense in the league.
Last week, in his first extensive action since 2022, Mills went just 17-for-30 for 137 yards.
Obvious as it is, I can’t resist the under in this game.
Pick:Â Under 37.5Â (best odds: -112 at DraftKings)
Saints at Panthers (-5.5 ) — 1 p.m. (FOX)
Betting against the Saints (1-8, 0-1 NFC South) has paid off far more often than not this year. That should continue following last week’s switch from Spencer Rattler to rookie Tyler Shough at quarterback.
After a win over the Giants in Week 5 and a close loss to New England in Week 6, the Saints were outscored 83-27 by the Bears, Bucs and Rams over the last three weeks.
The Panthers (5-4, 1-0 NFC South) just pulled off the biggest betting upset of the year to date, taking down the Packers at Lambeau as two-touchdown dogs last Sunday.
DL Derrick Brown and the Panthers’ drastically improved defense should be able to limit a Saints offense that went 3-and-out on four of its first five drives in last week’s blowout loss to the Rams.
This week, the Saints — who are bottom-3 in the league in both yards per play (4.7) and points per game (15.3) — likely got even worse on that side of the ball, trading away starting OT Trevor Penning and second-leading receiver Rashid Shaheed.Â
Barring a sudden explosion by Shough and the Saints, who have only cracked 20 points twice this year, Bryce Young and the Panthers should be able to win this one by at least a touchdown.Â
Last week in Green Bay, Carolina’s banged-up offensive line churned out 163 rushing yards on 33 carries thanks to another huge day by RB Rico Dowdle. For today’s game, center Cade Mays and right tackle Taylor Moton should make this running game even tougher to stop after those two missed last week’s win over the Packers.
As long as the Panthers — whose eight turnovers in their last seven games include three by backup QB Andy Dalton in a nightmare showing vs. Buffalo — take care of the football today, they should be able to secure their sixth win in eight games.
Pick:Â Panthers -5.5Â (best odds: -105 at FD)
Lions (-7.5) at Commanders — 4:25 p.m. (FOX)
The Lions (5-3) and Commanders (3-6) strike me as two teams moving in opposite directions, even after Detroit’s surprising loss at home to Minnesota last week.Â
Detroit has historically been outstanding after losses under head coach Dan Campbell, and that’s remained true this season. Following their losses in Weeks 1 and 6, the Lions beat Chicago 52-21 in Week 2 and whipped Tampa Bay 24-9 in Week 7.
The Commanders, on the other hand, have had a ton of problems on both sides of the ball over the last three weeks in blowout losses to the Cowboys, Chiefs and Seahawks.Â
With Jayden Daniels once again out this week, I expect Marcus Mariota to have a long day against a Lions D that is No. 8 in the NFL in yards per play allowed despite a rash of injuries that rocked the secondary in Weeks 6 and 7. It won’t help the Commanders’ cause today that wide receivers Terry McLaurin and Luke McCaffrey are both out.
While the offense has struggled without Daniels, the Washington defense has been an even bigger concern the last three weeks. The Commanders’ three worst performances by EPA (expected points added) all came in the last three weeks.
Pick:Â Lions -7.5Â (best odds: -115 at FanDuel)Â
Best NFL Week 10 Player Prop Bet
Jahmyr Gibbs Over 70.5 Rushing Yards (-112 at FanDuel)
If Detroit-Washington goes anything like I expect it to, Gibbs should get a ton of work. The Lions’ third-year star running back has been a bit up-and-down this year. He’s already averaged 6 yards per carry or better three different times, but four of Detroit’s opponents have held Gibbs to 3.8 ypc or fewer.
I don’t expect him to be bottled up today, though. Washington “stopped” Seattle’s running game by giving up a ton of huge plays in the passing game, but the RBs the Commanders faced in Weeks 6, 7 and 8 put up the following numbers:
- D’Andre Swift (Chicago): 14 carries, 108 yards (7.7 ypc)
- Javonte Williams (Dallas): 19 carries, 116 yards (6.1 ypc), 1 TD
- Isiah Pacheco, Kareem Hunt (KC): 21 total carries, 98 yards (4.7 ypc), 1 TD
That pretty much says it all, doesn’t it?
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