Democrat Abigail Spanberger expanded her lead over Republican Winsome Earle-Sears in a new poll of the Virginia gubernatorial race released on Thursday.
Newsweek reached out to the Earle-Sears and Spanberger campaigns for comment via email.
Why It Matters
The closely watched gubernatorial election pits Spanberger, a former member of Congress, against Earle-Sears, the state’s lieutenant governor. The race is a critical test of where the electorate stands ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, when Democrats hope to flip seats across the country, particularly if President Donald Trump’s approval rating continues to decline.
The party outside of the White House typically performs well in the Virginia gubernatorial race—and polling has shown Spanberger with a lead throughout the campaign, fueling Democratic optimism about their chances here.
But Republicans believe Earle-Sears’ support could be underestimated in polling. They have also sought to tie Spanberger to the Democrats’ attorney general candidate Jay Jones, who has faced backlash over leaked text messages suggesting political violence against a Republican lawmaker in the state.
What To Know
Spanberger’s lead in the race has grown since August, according to a new poll from Roanoke College released on Thursday. The poll gave the Democratic candidate, who has cast herself as a centrist Democrat throughout her political career, a 10-point lead over Earle-Sears, who has aligned herself with President Donald Trump.
Fifty-one percent of respondents said they planned to vote for Spanberger, compared to 41 percent who said they would cast their ballots for Earle-Sears.
The poll surveyed 1,041 likely voters from October 22 to October 27, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.05 percentage points.
It marks a shift toward Spanberger since Roanoke College’s August poll, which gave her a narrower seven-point lead. In that poll, 46 percent of respondents said they would vote for Spanberger, while 39 percent said they would vote for Earle-Sears.
The survey, conducted from August 11 to August 15, included 702 Virginia residents and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.39 percentage points.
Spanberger is in a more comfortable position than other Democrats on the ticket, according to October’s poll. In the lieutenant governor race, Democrat Ghazala Hasmi leads Republican John Reid by two points (42 percent to 40 percent). In the attorney general race, the incumbent Jason Miyares, a Republican, leads Jones by eight points (46 percent to 38 percent).
Incumbent Governor Glenn Youngkin, a Republican, cannot run again due to term limits. He won in 2021 by fewer than 2 percentage points.
Virginia was once a battleground, but it has shifted toward the Democrats. In 2024, the state backed former Vice President Kamala Harris by a margin of just under six points. In 2020, the state backed former President Joe Biden by about 10 points.
What People Are Saying
Dr. Harry Wilson, interim director for IPOR and professor emeritus of political science at Roanoke College, wrote in the polling memo: “Like most elections, this one will be determined by voter turnout and how independents vote. While Spanberger appears to have maximized her Democratic support, Earle-Sears could slightly increase her support among Republicans, and she needs to make more inroads with independents with very little time left to do so.”
Pollster Nate Silver wrote in an October 28 Substack post on Jones’ scandal: “But so far, the scandal hasn’t moved the needle upballot. Spanberger leads Republican Winsome Earle-Sears by between 8 to 10 points, depending on which polling average you use.”
What Happens Next
Early voting is underway. Election Day is November 4, 2025. Both the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the race as Likely Democratic.
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