Democrats and Republicans are vying for control of the U.S. House of Representatives in the November elections, and major forecasters suggest the outcome is a tossup.
Republicans currently hold a narrow majority in the House, holding 220 seats compared to Democrats’ 212 seats. This means Democrats need to only flip a handful of districts to win control of the House next year. But polls show that voters are closely divided ahead of this year’s elections, meaning both parties have a chance to win a majority of Congressional races on November 5.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the Center for Politics wrote on Wednesday that whichever party wins the presidential race is likely to win the House majority but noted that a “split outcome is not out of the realm of possibility.”
The forecaster favors Republicans in 211 seats and Democrats in 205 districts. It classified 19 races as pure toss-ups and made three ratings changes on Wednesday.
Colorado’s 8th District, in which Democratic Representative Yadira Caraveo is facing a challenge from state Representative Gabe Evans, shifted from “Lean Democratic” to “toss-up” in a key suburban Denver seat.
Colorado’s 3rd District, which is being vacated by Representative Lauren Boebert, who moved to a safer district, was reclassified as “Likely Republican” from “Lean Republican.”
Iowa’s 1st District, in which Republican Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks is being challenged by former state Representative Christina Bohannan, moved toward Democrats. It shifted from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican.”
“Republicans are closer to the magic number of 218 seats in our ratings than Democrats—211 seats at least lean to them, compared to just 205 at least leaning Democratic along with 19 Toss-ups. Splitting the Toss-ups down the middle, let’s say 10-9 Democratic for the sake of argument, would result in a 220-215 Republican House, or a net Democratic gain of a single seat based on the current full-strength House,” Kyle Kondik wrote in the update.
He continued, “Clearly that’s right on the edge between a Republican and a Democratic House. So while these ratings do imply a small GOP edge, we don’t really see a clear favorite either way.”
Other Forecasters View Close Race
The Cook Political Report similarly shows a close race for control of the House.
Republicans have an advantage in 210 House races, while Democrats have an advantage in 203 races, according to the forecaster. It classified 22 races as toss-ups, with Democrats and Republicans each holding 11 of those seats.
The forecaster Race to the White House gives Democrats a slight edge to win a majority. As of Thursday, its forecast showed Democrats with a 59 percent chance of winning the House, and Republicans had 41 percent.
It viewed 12 races as toss-ups but viewed Democrats as favored in some races other forecasters view as toss-ups. Those include Caraveo’s district, Ohio Democratic Representatives Marcy Kaptur and Emilia Sykes, New Mexico Representative Gabe Vasquez, and Washington Representative Marie Gluesenkamp Perez.
The Hill views Republicans as having an advantage in 212 seats and Democrats as having an advantage in 206 seats. As of July 18, it gave Republicans a 61 percent chance of retaining control of the House.
The forecaster views Alaska’s At-Large District, currently held by Democratic Representative Mary Peltola, as the most competitive race in the country, giving her a 52 percent chance of victory.
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