Former President Donald Trump’s path to the presidency has become clearer after a major election forecaster changed its ratings following last week’s presidential debate.
President Joe Biden is facing widespread criticism over his performance in the debate, as he sounded hoarse and mumbled through his answers. Many Democrats, including one member of Congress, are calling for Biden to exit the race, arguing he is no longer the candidate most able to argue why Trump should not return to the White House or present the Democratic Party’s vision on issues like abortion and the economy.
It remains unclear how much damage was done by the debate. While Democrats have panicked about Biden’s performance, polls have been a mixed bag. Some show Trump gaining ground against Biden, but others show minimal changes.
On Wednesday, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, which tracks how competitive the presidential race is in each of the 50 states, revealed that two states have become more favorable to Republicans in the wake of the debate.
Newsweek reached out to the Biden and Trump campaigns for comment via email.
Michigan and Minnesota both shifted toward Republicans in the latest update of the Electoral College map. Michigan was previously classified as “Lean Democratic,” but is now a “toss-up.” Meanwhile, Minnesota, which has backed Democrats for decades on the presidential level, has been moved from “Likely Democratic” to “Lean Democratic.”
“We had been giving Biden the benefit of the doubt in Michigan, keeping it as Leans Democratic even though polling there has been close for months. But we really can’t justify giving Biden an edge there now, even though we do still expect it to be the bluest part of the “Blue Wall” trio (the group of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin),” Kyle Kondik, managing editor for Sabato’s Crystal Ball, wrote in the update.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball added that Biden has “zero plausible paths to the White House” if he loses Michigan.
Kondik noted that more data is needed to conclusively draw conclusions about the debate, but that “it may no longer make sense to give Biden the benefit of the doubt,” raising concerns about his ability to consolidate his base.
More states could shift toward Republicans if Biden’s position “deteriorates further,” according to the update. Next to shift would be Maine’s statewide electoral votes, Virginia and New Mexico, all of which are presently rated as “Likely Democratic.”
Two toss-up states, Arizona and Nevada, could also be shifted to “Lean Republican” in that scenario, according to the update.
Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are also considered toss-ups by Sabato’s Crystal Ball, while Georgia and North Carolina are viewed as “Lean Republican.” New Hampshire is viewed as “Lean Democratic.”
As Biden seeks to quell concerns about his age from his own party, the White House on Tuesday said Biden would speak with congressional leaders later this week, give an interview to ABC’s George Stephanopoulos and hold a press conference in the coming days, The Associated Press reported.
Representative Lloyd Doggett, a Texas Democrat, on Tuesday became the first sitting member of Congress to urge Biden to withdraw. Biden is 81 and Trump is 78.
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