A slight uptick in President Donald Trump’s approval rating has “mostly reversed” itself, according to pollster Nate Silver.
Trump’s net approval rating is -12.5 as of Wednesday, according to Silver’s average of polls.
“That number isn’t too far off from his second term low” of -15 percentage points, recorded in November, Silver wrote in his Substack blog, Silver Bulletin. Earlier in December, Silver said Trump’s approval rating was showing signs of recovery.
Newsweek contacted the White House via an email sent outside regular business hours for comment.
Why It Matters
Many recent polls have found the president’s overall approval rating in a double-digit deficit, including one by a Republican-aligned pollster.
A shift in Trump’s approval rating could become more significant ahead of the November 2026 midterms, when control of Congress will be at stake. Losing seats in the House and Senate could affect the president’s ability to push through his agenda during the remainder of his term.
What To Know
The Silver Bulletin’s average “reflects a combination of all polls, whether conducted among adults, registered voters or likely voters,” according to the post. “If a pollster releases multiple versions of the same survey, we use the all-adult version of the poll before the registered voter version. This is because all Americans have a say in how popular the president is—whether or not they vote.”
A December poll by AtlasIntel, conducted among 2,315 respondents between December 15 and 19, gave Trump a net approval rating of -20 percentage points. According to the survey, 59.6 percent disapprove of the president while 39.3 percent approve of him. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
AtlastIntel was ranked the most accurate pollster of the 2024 election by Silver.
Silver noted that Trump’s net approval rating saw “a bit of an upward bounce” on Wednesday that was largely driven by a survey conducted by conservative pollster InsiderAdvantage.
That poll surveyed 800 likely voters on December 20 and found Trump’s net approval rating at +8.4 points. According to the survey, 49.5 percent of respondents approved of the president’s performance in December, while 41.1 percent disapproved and 9.1 percent were undecided. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.46 percent.
Meanwhile, the final Emerson College survey of the year found Trump’s net approval remains underwater at -9 points. According to the poll, which surveyed 1,000 registered voters between December 14 and 15, 41 percent approve of the job he is doing, while 50 percent disapprove.
It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
What People Are Saying
Calvin Jillson, a politics professor at Southern Methodist University in Texas, recently told Newsweek: “Across the first year of Trump’s second term, his support has fallen slowly, especially among young people and minorities, groups that gave him unusual support in 2024, and cracks are forming in the MAGA base. That’s why Republicans are increasingly nervous and Democrats are confident as they look forward to the 2026 midterms.”
What Happens Next
Trump’s popularity and approval rating will likely fluctuate as his presidency continues. The midterm elections will take place in November 2026.
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