Final polls, predictions for winner of Tennessee special election

Republican candidate Matt Van Epps is likely to win the special election in Tennessee, according to the latest polls and betting odds.

Vann Epps is standing against Aftyn Behn, a Democratic state legislator, to fill a seat left vacant by former Representative Mark Greene, who resigned from the House earlier this year.

Polls, betting odds and political analysis indicate Van Epps will likely win the seat but there have been signs that support for Behn is growing.

Newsweek reached out to representatives for Behn and Van Epps by email to comment on this story outside of normal business hours.

Why It Matters

The election has attracted national attention because the GOP has a slim majority in the House of Representatives with 219 seats to the Democrats 213. The resignation of Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, a Georgia Republican, in January will bring that to 218-213. If the party loses a handful of seats in upcoming elections and the midterms, it will affect the Trump administration’s ability to push through its agenda.

Meanwhile, Trump carried the district by more than 20 points in the November 2024 election, so if Democrats take the seat, or Republicans win it with a narrower margin, it could suggest a backlash against the Trump administration, particularly given Democrats performed well in elections across the country on November 4.

What To Know

On Wednesday, a poll from Emerson College showed Van Epps leading Behn 48 percent to 46 percent among likely voters, with five percent undecided and two percent backing third-party candidates. It surveyed 600 likely voters from November 22-24 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.

While this poll showed Van Epps in the lead, it indicated that his lead has narrowed compared to polls conducted earlier. For instance, an Impact Research poll from October showed Van Epps up by 8 points (52 percent to 44 percent).

The poll surveyed 700 likely special election voters from October 16 to October 19 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.

A Workbench Strategies poll also showed Van Epps up 8 points (52 percent to 44 percent). It surveyed 400 likely voters from October 15-19 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 5.65 percentage points.

Political analysts have also suggested Van Epps will win the election. The Cook Political Report classifies the race as “Likely Republican.” Sabato’s Crystal Ball rated the race as “Likely Republican,” while Inside Elections classed the seat as “lean Republican.”

Meanwhile, betting odds have also putt Van Epps ahead. According to Polymarket, he has an 87 percent chance of success while Behn has a 13 percent chance.

Prediction market Kalshi has similar odds, predicting that Van Epps has an 85 percent chance of winning the election while Behn is on 16 percent.

What People Are Saying

On Truth Social, Trump called on “all America First Patriots in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District, who haven’t voted yet, to please GET OUT AND VOTE for MAGA Warrior Matt Van Epps.”

“You can win this Election for Matt! PLEASE VOTE FOR MATT VAN EPPS, who has my Complete and Total Endorsement,” he added, saying that Van Epps would “never let you down.”

Behn said in a statement provided to Newsweek: “Matt Van Epps and Washington Republicans are panicking because they know Tennessee families are suffering under their failed economic policies that are raising their costs, while they lower taxes for their billionaire donors. My affordability message—to lower grocery costs, housing costs, and health care costs—is resonating with voters of all political stripes, which is why this race is now tied.”

A Van Epps spokesperson told Newsweek last week: “Public polling in a low-turnout special election around the Holidays is unreliable and inaccurate,” a “What is clear: there are more Republicans than Democrats in this district and all efforts remain focused on reaching, motivating, and turning out Republicans to vote today or on Tuesday, December 2nd. The smaller number of Democrats in this district are intensely fired up, but as more Republicans tune in and understand the stakes of the race and the craziness of the Democrat nominee, momentum has shifted toward Trump-endorsed Matt Van Epps. He will win on Tuesday, December 2nd.”