Gavin Newsom leading JD Vance among young men: Republican pollster

California Governor Gavin Newsom holds an early edge over Vice President JD Vance among young male voters for the 2028 presidency, according to new polling from a Republican-affiliated firm.

The latest League of American Workers/TIPP survey, conducted October 22-28, shows that among young men, 38 percent would vote for Newsom compared to 33 percent for Vance.

Why It Matters

The findings suggest that Newsom—a prominent Democratic voice—continues to outperform expectations with a demographic that has trended toward the GOP in recent years. The results come amid renewed debate within both parties over how to win back young men, a group increasingly seen as pivotal to future national elections.

What To Know

The 2024 election saw young men shift toward President Donald Trump, with the GOP becoming the preferred party among the demographic.

According to AP VoteCast, 53 percent of men aged 18—44 backed him, up from 45 percent in 2020, when Joe Biden carried the group with 52 percent.

The narrow youth margins in the 2024 election sparked anxiety within the Democratic Party that it was losing touch with younger voters, particularly young men.

On an episode of his podcast in May, Newsom said Democrats had to “get out of our own damn bubble” and examine the social and economic forces that paved Trump’s path back to the White House in November.

“I just think we need to really have a deep introspection, and we need to own up to what has happened over the last few elections, not just this election,” he said. “I think we’ve got to square with our agenda and where the American people are.”

Since then, Newsom has sought to improve his party’s image with young men, launching a podcast where he has interviewed leading MAGA figures like the late Charlie Kirk and Steve Bannon.

He has also publicly criticized his party on some issues. In his conversation with conservative commentator Kirk, Newsom criticized how the Democratic Party has handled debates over transgender rights. When asked about a transgender high school athlete’s recent victory in a girls’ track event, Newsom said the situation raised “an issue of fairness,” adding that Democrats “have to own that” and “acknowledge it.” He said the party was being politically “crushed” on transgender issues.

Newsom pointed to Trump’s 2024 campaign as an example, noting that it effectively used the issue to attack Democratic candidate Kamala Harris. He described one Trump campaign ad—which stated, “Kamala’s for They/Them. President Trump is for You”—as “a great ad,” but “devastating” for Democrats. He added that Harris’ lack of response made the problem worse.

Meanwhile, Newsom has launched a barrage of sharp attacks on Trump on social media since August, with the governor’s office transforming its presence into a barrage of all-caps taunts, pop culture spoofs, and AI-generated memes—mocking the president’s style.

And polls suggest Newsom’s approach may be paying off. He has received a significant bump in the polls in recent months. However, not all surveys have been good news for Newsom. A Noble Predictive Insights poll, conducted between October 2-6, showed that among Democrats and independents, Newsom is trailing former Vice President Harris for the 2028 nomination, after leading her in August.

Nonetheless, some election results suggest young men are moving back toward the Democratic Party. CNN exit polls showed men aged 18-29 opting for the Democratic ticket in Virginia, New Jersey, and New York in Tuesday’s elections, and supporting Proposition 50 on redistricting in California.

In Virginia, CNN exit polls show Democratic gubernatorial candidate Abigail Spanberger winning 57 percent of men aged 18 to 29, her strongest support among any male age group. That number fell to 52 percent among men aged 30 to 44 and 42 percent among those 65 and older.

In New Jersey, 56 percent of young men backed Democrat Mikie Sherrill, compared to 44 percent for Republican Jack Ciattarelli. Support among men peaked at 61 percent for those aged 30 to 44 before declining sharply with age.

In New York City’s mayoral election, Democrat Zohran Mamdani captured 68 percent of young men, far ahead of independent Andrew Cuomo’s 26 percent and Republican Curtis Sliwa’s 5 percent.

California showed a similar pattern, with 74 percent of men aged 18 to 29 voting yes on Proposition 50, while 26 percent voted no.

Will JD Vance and Gavin Newsom Run In 2028?

Neither Vance nor Newsom have declared their candidacy for 2028, but both have hinted they will run. In April, Vance said during a Fox & Friends appearance that he would consider making a pitch for the White House. “When we get to that point, I’ll talk to the president. We’ll figure out what we want to do. But the way that I think about it is, if we do a good job, the politics take care of themselves,” Vance said.

“There’s so much to do and I don’t really think that much about what happens in three and a half years,” he added.

A month later, Vance told NBC News: “If I do end up running in 2028, I’m not entitled to it.”

Last month, Trump floated the idea of Vance running for president with Secretary of State Marco Rubio as his vice presidential pick, as per Politico.

But in a recent interview on the New York Post’s Pod Force One, Vance brushed off rumors of his running in 2028, calling them “premature,” but did not deny the possibility of discussing the idea later in Trump’s second term.

“My attitude is that the American people elected me to be vice president,” Vance said. “I’m going to work as hard as I can to make the president successful over the next three years and three months, and if we get to a point where something else is on offer, let’s handle it then,” he said.

“But let’s at least get through the next couple of years and do good work for the American people before we talk about politics.”

Meanwhile, Newsom has increasingly positioned himself as a potential contender for 2028, though he has stopped short of formally declaring a campaign. In an interview broadcast on October 26, 2025, he said, “I’d be lying otherwise,” when asked if he was seriously considering a presidential run and confirmed he would make a definitive decision only after the 2026 midterm elections.

Despite his openness to running, Newsom has emphasized that his immediate focus remains on strengthening his party’s position in the upcoming midterms, rather than mounting a national campaign. He told CBS Sunday Morning: “I’m looking forward to who presents themselves in 2028 and who meets that moment.”