California Governor Gavin Newsom’s chances of becoming the Democratic Party’s next presidential candidate have improved, according to polling.
Emerson College’s latest polling shows that the proportion of people who would vote for Newsom in the Democratic presidential primaries has increased by 13 points from August to December. While he has not announced a formal run for president, the governor told CBS News in October he would decide after the 2026 midterm elections.
Newsweek reached out to Newsom’s office for comment outside of normal business hours.
Why It Matters
Newsom has consistently been mentioned among the leading candidates in most polls of the 2028 primary. He has also delivered a number of speeches around the country criticizing the Trump administration and recently trolled President Donald Trump on social media by copying his posting style and taking umbrage with his policy offerings, which has boosted his profile. The governor has also led a redistricting push in California to help Democrats win future elections.
Whoever wins the Democratic presidential primary will set the party’s agenda and bear a lot of responsibility for healing rifts between moderates and progressives and for beating the Republicans in 2028.
What To Know
According to Emerson’s poll of 567 likely primary voters, 36 percent would vote for Newsom, while 16 percent would vote for former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg.
When Emerson polled people in August, Newsom led by a narrower margin—23 percent to 17 percent for Buttigieg.
The new poll, conducted between December 1 and 2, also found that New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez had 13 percent of the vote and former Vice President Kamala Harris had 9 percent. Fifteen percent said they would support someone else, and 11 percent said they were undecided.
If Newsom leads the Democratic Party, he is likely to take a moderate approach.
“We have to be a party that understands the importance and power of the border, substantively and politically,” he said during a Wednesday talk at the New York Times‘ DealBook Summit. He added that Democrats need to develop a “compelling economic vision for the future where people feel included.”
Meanwhile, according to an Emerson College poll from October, if Newsom were pitted against Vice President JD Vance in the next election cycle, 46 percent would support Vance, while 45 percent would opt for Newsom. Commentators have suggested Vance might run to succeed Trump.
What People Are Saying
California Governor Gavin Newsom told CBS News in October: “Yeah, I’d be lying otherwise,” in response to a question on whether he would consider a presidential bid. “I’d just be lying. And I’m not – I can’t do that.”
What Happens Next
Newsom will step down as governor of California in January 2027, after serving the constitutionally mandated maximum of two terms.
Candidates tend to announce their presidential runs after the midterm elections, and other politicians from both parties are rumored to be considering a run.
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