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As McCray only has two weeks of experience in MLB, we have very limited data on the pitch-mix for him. With that said, Civale throws a cutter as his most frequent pitch, and all three of McCray’s home runs have come off cutters. He has seen three of them, and all three have been sent out of the ballpark.
So, let’s hope that the rookie phenom stays hot tonight.
Jackson Merrill Home Run (+630) FanDuel
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals, 2:15 p.m. ET
This play on Merrill is a bet for three separate reasons.
First, and most importantly, the value on FanDuel is excellent at +630 odds. For context, the next-closest book prices Merrill at +450, and every other book across the board is in the +400s. So, from a strictly line-shopping perspective, this is an excellent value.
From there, the second reason is being able to back a red-hot batter in Merrill, who is now the betting favorite to win NL MVP. He is tied with the third-most HardHit line-drive + fly-balls over the past week with seven total, and tied with the second-most balls launched (100+ mph off the bat, 20-40 degree launch angle) in the same timeframe, with four. Only one batter is ahead of him, with five.
Not only is Merrill crushing the baseball, but he is also significantly better against right-handed pitching, which is what he will be facing tonight. In the last two weeks against RHP, he is hitting .333 with a 21% barrel rate and 58.62% HardHit rate.
Lastly, and the third reason this play is a great value, Merrill gets a solid pitching matchup against Sonny Gray. While Gray is thought of as an ace pitcher, he struggles against left-handed hitters such as Merrill. Gray has a HR/9 of 1.39 on the season against LHH, up from 1.17 against RHH.
With that said, over the past two months, he has really struggled against lefties, allowing a home run every 15 at-bats with a 27.27% HR/FB (home run to fly-ball) ratio and a 9.91% barrel rate. Lastly, Merrill has crushed the pitch-mix of Gray, which includes a 4-seam fastball over 30% of the time, over the past two weeks. Merrill has a 14.29% barrel rate and 53.85% HardHit rate against 4-seamers from RHP over the past two weeks.
Jarren Duran Home Run (+750) FanDuel
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox, 7:10 p.m. ET
This is another play that has excellent value from an odds perspective. FanDuel is pricing this at +750, while most other books have this at +650 or +600. Not quite the same value as Merrill today, but still very good.
The +750 price is also great value when considering how hot Duran has been at the plate recently. To be clear, the pitcher for the Blue Jays, the right-handed Bowden Francis, is not horrible, and he’s not somebody who would typically be targeted as a home run type of pitcher. Instead, this is a play backing one of the hottest batters on the planet.
Duran has hit six home runs off RHP over the past two weeks, with a 11.76% barrel rate and 49% HardHit rate. Those are already good stats, but the beauty of this one is that Francis throws a 4-seamer over 50% of the time, and that is where Duran has done most of his damage.
In the last two weeks, he has hit four home runs off RHP, and all four have come off the 4-seam fastball.
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