NFL Wild Card Odds, Best Bets For Sunday: BUF vs. JAX, SF vs. PHI, LAC vs. NE 📩

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Happy NFL Wild Card Sunday!

After a couple of memorable showdowns in the NFC last night, the Wild Card round continues this afternoon with three more intriguing matchups before Texans-Steelers wraps up the first round of the playoffs tomorrow night.

Below are the odds, via FD as of Sunday morning, kickoff times and broadcast info for today’s games:

• Bills at Jaguars (-1.5) — 1 p.m., 📺 CBS
• 49ers at Eagles (-5.5) — 4:30 p.m., 📺 FOX
• Chargers at Patriots (-3.5) — 8:15 p.m., 📺 NBC/Peacock

Alright, let’s get into it, with quick breakdowns, picks and best bets for all three games on tap this afternoon.

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Bills (6) at Jaguars (3) Betting Odds, Player Props, Best Bets

• Spread: BUF +1.5 (-108); JAX -1.5 (-112)
• Moneyline: BUF +106; JAX -124
• Total: 51.5 (over -105; under -115)

2024 NFL MVP Josh Allen and the Bills (12-5) at plus-money are understandably going to tempt a lot of bettors.

The red-hot Jaguars (13-4) strike me as the much more complete team, though. Allen repeatedly put the Bills on his back to get them to this point, but their lack of receivers and inconsistent defense make them hard to trust on the road today.

Trevor Lawrence and the home favorites are light on playoff experience, but they have been one of the hottest teams in the league over the last couple of months.

Jacksonville has not only won eight games in a row, but it topped 30 points in five of those games. Only two of this team’s victories during this streak were one-possession games. And remember, the Jags would be riding a 10-game winning streak if not for a late collapse in a 36-29 loss to the Texans in Week 10.

Green Bay was a popular pick on the road against the Bears last night, largely due to its advantage in playoff experience. Picking against the Packers had seemingly backfired at halftime of that game, but we all saw what happened next …

I digress, but today, I like another team that doesn’t have much playoff experience but is playing outstanding football right now (the Jaguars) to take down a Bills team that is too dependent, for my liking, on Josh Allen hero ball.

If you’re (understandably) scared to bank on Jacksonville surviving some late-game magic by Josh Allen, consider the Jaguars on the first-half spread.

I also like Lawrence to run for a touchdown. He’s been an effective scrambler all year, especially in the red zone, with 9 TDs, including four in Weeks 15, 16 and 17. His ATTD odds of +175 offer a ton of value, IMO.

Pick: Jaguars

Best bets:

• Jacksonville 1H -1.5 (+100 at FD) — 1 unit
• Trevor Lawrence ATTD (best odds: +175 at DK) — 0.5 units

49ers (6) at Eagles (3) Betting Odds, Player Props, Best Bets

• Spread: SF +5.5 (-102); PHI -5.5 (-120)
• Moneyline: SF +220; PHI -270
• Total: 44.5 (over -104; under -118)

49ers defensive coordinator Robert Saleh deserves a ton of credit for keeping the San Francisco defense afloat down the stretch without Fred Warner or Nick Bosa.

But I’m skeptical that San Francisco (12-5) is going to hold up against the reigning champs in Philly this afternoon.

The Eagles’ (11-6) running game struggled for most of the regular season, but it finally came to life down the stretch. I expect Saquon Barkley and Co. to control this game, especially if right tackle Lane Johnson is in action, against a Niners front seven that gave up 180 yards on the ground to the Seahawks last week.

The Niners offense has been tremendous this season, even amid a number of injuries, but I don’t like how this unit matches up against the Eagles. With Jalen Carter and the Philly D at full strength, they should be able to bottle up Christian McCaffrey and get after Brock Purdy, just like Seattle did in Week 18 (Purdy threw for just 127 yards on 27 attempts, with 0 TDs, 1 interception and 3 sacks, as SF gained less than 200 yards of total offense.

The possible return of star 49ers LT Trent Williams would provide a huge boost, but even if he suits up, I just don’t see the San Francisco offense consistently moving the football in this game.

The Eagles at -5.5 is risky given how well the Niners have played offensively (for the most part) down the stretch, but I trust Vic Fangio, the reigning champs’ playoff experience, etc. etc., to spur a comfortable W for the home favorites.

On the props front, I love Barkley’s chances to have a big night. He rested in Week 18 and had at least 19 rushing attempts in Weeks 14, 15, 16 and 17. He’s a great bet to get at least 20 carries today (especially at +106) as the Eagles look to dominate possession and keep Purdy on the sidelines.

Remember, he had 25 carries or more in three of Philly’s four playoff games a year ago.

Pick: Eagles

Best bets:

• Eagles -5.5 (best odds: -120 at FanDuel) — 1 unit
• Saquon Barkley o19.5 rush attempts (+106 at FD) — 1 unit

Chargers (7) at Patriots (2) Betting Odds, Prediction, Best Bets

• Spread: LAC +3.5 (-110); NE -3.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: LAC +162; NE -194
• Total: 45.5 (over -114; under -106)

To me, tonight’s clash between New England (14-3) and L.A. (11-6) is the hardest matchup of the day to predict and/or handicap.

Will the Chargers’ well-documented struggles on the O-line be their undoing on the road in Foxborough? Or will L.A. find a way to muck this game up, keep Drake Maye in check and pull off the upset?

I’m torn, but I don’t see L.A. winning this game unless it can shut down Maye … and I don’t see that happening, even if the Chargers play well defensively.

Backing a second-year quarterback in the postseason, even an MVP candidate like Maye, is certainly risky, but he’s given us little reason to believe that the moment is going to be too big for him this evening.

Chargers QB Justin Herbert has been incredible this season, especially given the circumstances. That being said, barring a dominant defensive effort by L.A., I don’t see him getting enough pass protection to outscore Maye and the Pats.

Laying 3.5 points with a New England team that is new to the postseason is a risk I’m not quite willing to take, though, so I recommend staying away from the spread in this game.

I’m not quite enough of a coward to go with “stay away altogether” as my recommendation, but I would approach this one with caution.

If there’s one bet I do like here, it’s the first-half under. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Maye struggle on the first few possessions of his playoff career, and the Patriots front seven should also have the upper hand at home against the Chargers’ injury-ravaged O-line.

Pick: Patriots

Best bet: First Half Under 22.5 (-110 at DK) — 1 unit

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