On Nov. 18, the Boston Red Sox, along with every other Major League team, was faced with a series of difficult, even painful decisions. That was the deadline for teams to add prospects to their 40-man rosters. Any who were left off, and who met the proper service-time conditions, could be taken by any other team in the Dec. 10 Rule 5 draft.
The Red Sox chose to protect three players from the Rule 5 Draft by adding them to the 40-man roster. Of Boston’s top 30 prospects, as rated by MLB Pipeline, only one earned protection — No. 8 prospect David Sandlin, a 24-year-old right-handed pitcher who came over from the Kansas City Royals organization in a 2022 trade for major league catcher John Schneider.
Also protected were left-hander Shane Drohan and right-hander Tyler Uberstine, neither of whom is ranked by MLB Pipeline, though SoxProspects.com has Uberstine as No. 15 in the Boston system, and Drohan No. 16.
But the Red Sox left their No. 19 prospect unprotected. That was 21-year-old right-handed starter Jedixson Paez, signed in 2021 out of Venezuela for $450,000, the fourth-largest signing bonus paid to any of the 31 international prospects signed by Boston that year.
In five minor league seasons, Paez has yet to advance past the High-A level, though that is not unusual given that he does not reach his 22nd birthday until Jan. 17. But Paez was selected second overall in the Rule 5 Draft, by the Chicago White Sox, who under MLB rules must keep the young pitcher on their 26-man big-league roster for the full 2026 season.
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If they fail to do so, the White Sox must then return Paez to Boston for the nominal fee of $50,000 — and according to a new prediction from Just Baseball executive editor Aram Leighton, that is exactly what will happen, at least according to probabilities calculated by Leighton.
He assigns only a 30% chance that Paez will make it through the season with Chicago, and will instead go back to the Red Sox where he will be re-signed.
Apart from the improbability of a single-A player jumping straight to the majors and staying there, Paez needs to “prove that he can miss big-league bats,” according to Leighton.
The young right-hander will also need to show that he can handle a big-league workload.
“It will be interesting to see how the White Sox plan to utilize Paez as his arsenal is that of a starter, but even in his healthy 2025 season, he was rarely eclipsing 75 pitches and did not surpass 50 pitches in his seven starts last year,” Leighton wrote.
The White Sox also took a Red Sox pitcher in the Rule 5 Draft just two years ago, in 2023. In that case, the pitcher was Drohan, who was soon returned to Boston and has now been placed on the 40-man roster, guaranteeing he cannot be poached again. It now appears more likely than not that Paez will also find his way back to the Boston farm system.
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