Topline
In a summer moviegoing season that has struggled to get off the ground, “Bad Boys: Ride or Die” starring Will Smith and Martin Lawrence could finally help the box office show signs of life this weekend—though it will still lag far behind last summer—with “Inside Out 2” and “A Quiet Place: Day One” also opening this month.
Key Facts
“Bad Boys: Ride or Die” is projected to gross upwards of $40 million in its domestic opening weekend and more than $75 million worldwide, Deadline reported, in what has otherwise been a disappointing summer at the box office.
The film benefits from being part of an already successful series: The “Bad Boys” films have grossed more than $840 million worldwide combined, and the last film, “Bad Boys For Life,” surpassed expectations to open with $62 million in 2020.
“Bad Boys: Ride or Die” has a 68% score on Rotten Tomatoes, the second-best reviewed “Bad Boys” film, and the series has consistently been a hit with audiences, with the first three films all receiving an “A” rating from CinemaScore.
The following weekend, “Inside Out 2,” the sequel to Disney Pixar’s hit 2015 film, is projected to open with upwards of $80 million at the domestic box office, potentially surpassing “Dune: Part Two” as the best opening weekend of 2024 and suggesting June will be a stronger month than May at the theaters.
“A Quiet Place: Day One,” a prequel and the third installment overall in the horror film series, is also projected to gross more than $40 million over the final weekend of June, Deadline reported, easily becoming the best opening for a horror film so far this year.
Contra
Though a $40 million opening would be a success by this summer’s dismal standards, it still pales in comparison to the blockbuster success of last summer, which had megahits like “Barbie,” “Oppenheimer” and “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse.” Analysts expect the summer movie season will just barely surpass $3 billion in box office sales, CNBC reported, down from last year’s $4.1 billion and far short of the $4 billion marker most summers achieved before the COVID-19 pandemic. The new “Bad Boys” film will likely gross less in its opening weekend than its predecessor film because fourth films in any film series typically perform worse than the third, Deadline reported. The third film also benefited from being released 17 years after the second—Deadline noted long-delayed sequels often outperform their predecessors.
Key Background
The summer box office has gotten off to a dismal start, with only one movie surpassing $40 million at the weekend box office in the last two months—”Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes,” which opened to $58 million in May. Nearly every other opening has been a disappointment, with films like “The Fall Guy” and “Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga” falling short of expectations. “Furiosa” opened to $32 million at the domestic box office over Memorial Day weekend in what was the worst Memorial Day box office since 1995. Last weekend was even worse—the box office weekend total dropped from $97 million over the Memorial Day weekend to just $60 million last weekend, less than a third of the same weekend last year, when weekend box office grosses topped $200 million. The movies are still suffering the effects of last year’s Hollywood strikes, which caused numerous tentpole films to be delayed. “Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning Part Two” was postponed from June 2024 to May 2025, while “Captain America: Brave New World” was pushed from May 2024 to July 2024 before being pushed again to February 2025.
Surprising Fact
Every week at this year’s box office has grossed less than the same week in 2023, The Hollywood Reporter reported, with total box office revenue lagging 24% behind last year’s revenue at this point in the year.
‘Bad Boys: Ride Or Die’ Hopes To Avoid Speed Bump At Sluggish Summer Box Office With $75M+ Global Opening – Preview (Deadline)
The Summer Box Office Crisis: Is the Sky Really Falling This Time? (The Hollywood Reporter)
‘Inside Out 2’ Could End Disney’s String Of Animated Box Office Flops (Forbes)
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