The 16-Seed Most Likely to Shock a No. 1 in Your March Madness Bracket

We made it, friends.

The craziest and most chaotic sports tournament of the year (sorry, World Cup) is about to begin for both women and men, as March Madness kicks off next week.

The men’s bracket has just been unveiled, and we have four regions full of favorites, underdogs, and new heroes to be discovered over the next three weeks of play from across the United States.

But it’s more than just the national title up for grabs. As the colleges fight tooth and nail for the trophy, so are you, as you fill out your bracket to defeat your friends who become foes in March.

You’re looking at the bracket right now and want to be different. You remember UMBC beating Virginia in 2018. Fairleigh Dickinson taking down Purdue in 2023. You want to be that guy or gal who calls their shot at the No. 16 seed taking down Goliath, even if it means your bracket is busted if you get it wrong.

If you’re that type of person, then let’s look through which 16 seed has the best (relative) shot to pull off the historic upset.

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East Region: 1. Duke vs. 16. Siena

The Blue Devils have the best player in the country in Cameron Boozer, a top-five offense and defense, and are deep enough that even if all their starters weren’t feeling it, the backups could come back and beat a lot of teams in this tournament.

Siena plays some of the slowest basketball you’ve ever seen in your life.

Good luck.

South Region: 1. Florida vs. 16. Lehigh/Prairie View A&M

For the people who want to go against the defending champions, Florida, they did just get blown out by Vanderbilt in the SEC tournament.

The bad news is that Lehigh and Prairie View’s teams combined aren’t strong enough to do the same to the Gators. Per KenPom, they’re the weakest teams in the entire field.

West Region: 1. Arizona vs. 16. Long Island

Per KenPom, the Long Island Sharks are one of the worst teams in March Madness. They are the 216th-best team in the country, compared to the Wildcats, who are second and boast top-five offenses and defenses.

The Sharks do have an experienced, older team, headlined by a senior guard combo.

And…and, yeah, that’s all I got.

Midwest Region: 1. Michigan vs. 16. UMBC/Howard

The number of people who will pick UMBC because they remember the 2018 team is going to be astronomical. Howard has a good shot at facing Michigan, though. The odds are split on who will have the honor of trying to take down the Big Ten champions.

Even with the odds being nearly impossible for either UMBC or Howard, the other matchups are so lopsided that this is probably your best shot if you want to be chaotic and pick a No. 1 seed going down.