Former President Donald Trump is ahead of President Biden in Michigan by the narrowest of margins, a 2024 election poll released Tuesday showed.
Trump holds a 0.6 point lead over Biden, with the presumptive Republican nominee garnering 48.2% support to the incumbent’s 47.6% backing in a head-to-head matchup, according to the Mitchell-Michigan News Source Poll.
The 77-year-old former president’s advantage increased slightly – to 1.2 percentage points – when third-party candidates were included in the survey.
In a five-way race, Trump received 46.3% support to the 81-year-old president’s 45.1% backing.
Independent candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West received 3.3% and 1.1% support, respectively, while Green Party candidate Jill Stein only garnered 0.5%.
The survey of likely voters in the Wolverine State was conducted on Monday, days after a Manhattan jury found Trump guilty of falsifying business records in his hush money trial.
More Michigan voters (38%) responded that the verdict in the case made them more likely to vote for Trump than against him (25%).
Thirty-seven percent said that the guilty verdict had “no influence” in how they would vote.
The poll also found that by a seven point margin more Republicans (82%) are “very enthusiastic” about the 2024 election than Democrats (75%).
“Trumps lead has narrowed from two percent to point six percent since our last survey conducted May
20-21, 2024, before Trump’s conviction,” Steve Mitchell, president of Mitchell Research & Communications, Inc. said in a statement.
“In the May 2024 survey Trump had solidified his base better than Biden but post-conviction, Biden is doing slightly better with Democrats (95%) than Trump has with Republicans (93%),” he added. “Trump has dropped from 9% to 4% with Democrats while Biden has gone from 4% of Republicans to 5%. Trump now leads with Independents 47% – 40%.”
There are 15 Electoral College votes up for grabs in Michigan in November.
Biden beat Trump by less than 3 percentage points in the state in 2020.
Trump had previously defeated Hillary Clinton in Michigan by less than one percent back in 2016.
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