Republican gubernatorial candidate Bruce Blakeman leads incumbent Democrat Kathy Hochul by 21 percentage points among independent voters — even as she holds a healthy double-digit lead in the deeply blue Empire State, a new poll found.
Hochul leads Blakeman by 12 percentage points, 52% to 40%, with 8% undecided, according to an Emerson College/PIX 11 survey of 900 likely voters released Thursday.
“Hochul’s lead is driven by strong support among New York Democrats, 84% to 8%, but independents break for the Republican, Blakeman, 55% to 34%, a notable contrast with other Emerson statewide polls this cycle, in which independent voters have generally favored the Democratic candidate,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.
The Emerson College survey tracks other recent independent polls that show Hochul leading Blakeman from a range of 11-19 points. Republican polls claim the race is much closer.
Emerson found Hochul is not popular — only 40% approve of her job performance, 46% disapprove, and the remainder of voters are undecided.
The poll had worse news for Sen. Chuck Schumer, the Democratic minority leader.
Only 30% approve of Schumer’s job performance, 50% disapprove and 20% are unsure — a startlingly low number in Democratic-dominated New York.
Schumer’s approval rating was 5 points lower than President Trump’s, who had a 35% approval rating and a 57% disapproval rating, the poll found.
Democratic socialist Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has been stumping upstate, which many see as a networking bid to run for Schumer’s seat when it’s up for grabs in 2028.
First-year democratic socialist Mayor Zohran Mamdani has a higher approval rating than statewide elected officials, with 47% giving him a thumbs up and 41% disapproving, and 13% undecided, the poll found.
The Emerson College Polling/PIX11 News New York surveyed 900 likely voters Oct. 3-5, and has a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points.
Registered Democrats outnumber Republicans statewide 6 million to 3.4 million — but there are also 3.4 million who aren’t affiliated with a party, according to the state Board of Elections active enrollment logs.
Hochul, 68, is seeking her second full term after the former lieutenant governor ascended to the top post when former Gov. Andrew Cuomo resigned. Blakeman, 71, is now serving as the elected Nassau County executive on Long Island.
The governor serves a four-year term at an annual salary of $250,000.
Election Day is Nov. 3.
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