French authorities are investigating unexplained temperature spikes recorded at a Paris airport weather station that were used to settle a Polymarket bet, after irregular readings helped trigger tens of thousands of dollars in payouts and fueled online speculation about possible manipulation.
The incident has drawn particular attention after a viral video circulated online claiming to show how the temperature sensor was allegedly tampered with using a hairdryer. Authorities, however, have not identified a suspect, confirmed any method of interference, or authenticated the footage, and the clip is not linked to the French investigation. Officials say the probe is focused on the anomalous data itself, not on claims spreading across social media.
What Happened?
At the end of the day on April 6, the temperature spiked unexpectedly in Paris, according to the weather station at the popular Charles de Gaulle airport, just outside the capital, French news site BFMTV reported.
The thermometer jumped by roughly 4 degrees Celsius in the space of 12 minutes, between 6:30 p.m. and 6:42 p.m. local time, registering 22.5 C—or 72.5 degrees Fahrenheit—before dropping again abruptly, according to French newspaper Le Figaro. Temperatures that day were on average 18 C during daytime, or 64.4 F, according to reports.
The sensor at the airport was used to measure temperatures in Paris in a Polymarket bet. The sudden spike in temperature on April 6 won a user on the online betting platform $14,000 on an initial bet of only a few dozens dollars. The account of the user, BFMTV reported, had been created only a couple of days earlier.
Another similarly sharp and short-lived, hard-to-explain hike in temperature was reported on April 15, when the thermometer reported another jump to 22 C or 71.6 F. On that occasion, another user won over $20,000 on Polymarket, which is officially blocked and banned in France.
No neighboring weather stations reported similar high temperatures during the same hours, raising suspicions that the sensor at Charles de Gaulle airport was tampered with.
The total payout on the online betting site connected to the two anomalies is of roughly $34,000.
Growing Suspicions and Online Rumors
Both weather enthusiasts and authorities have looked at the sudden spike in temperatures and the two corresponding victories on Polymarket with suspicion.
On platforms like Discord and X, users have speculated that a portable heat source may have been used to artificially raise the sensor’s temperature, despite no confirmed evidence of tampering.
The video has not been authenticated by Newsweek or any other reliable source. It is not linked to the French investigation, and authorities have not confirmed that a hairdryer was used to tamper with the sensor at Charles de Gaulle airport—or any tampering at all, for that matter.
The video circulating on social media shows signs of being staged or digitally generated.
The hairdryer in the clip appears to be plugged in before it is even removed from a bag the alleged suspect is carrying. Inexplicably, it is plugged into the machine being tampered with, and remains plugged in even as the man walks away. There is no evidence whatsoever that the clip, which has been taken at face value by many social-media users, is real.
An Ongoing Investigation Following An Official Complaint
Météo France, the official French meteorological administration, confirmed to French news media that it has filed a complaint with the Roissy Air Transport Gendarmerie Brigade for “tampering with the operation of an automated data processing system.”
The allegation follows “physical observations” on the organization’s weather sensors and its data.
Meteorologist Paul Marquis told Le Figaro that the sudden spikes in temperature reported at Charles de Gaulle earlier this month are hard to explain naturally.
“There are several situations where a sudden temperature change can occur, particularly when the wind direction changes, or at the end of a storm,” Marquis said. “But in this specific case, there was no change in wind direction or relative humidity, and the other stations recorded nothing. It’s difficult to say for sure, but a rise in natural temperature seems quite suspicious,” he added.
“That would mean someone physically intervened with a heating device to change the temperature for an hour ,” Marquis concluded.
The investigation remains open, with no suspect publicly identified and no confirmed evidence of tampering, though the timing of the temperature spikes and the winning bets has raised questions.
Newsweek contacted Météo France and Polymarket for comment by email on Thursday afternoon.
Increased Scrutiny On Polymarket and Online Betting Sites
Polymarket’s weather bets shifted its source for the temperature in Paris from the Charles de Gaulle airport station to the Paris-Le Bourget airport around April 19, according to reports.
The incident is likely to add fuel to an ongoing debate over the vulnerabilities of real-world data markets like Polymarket.
One of the most recent, highest-profile cases involving the platform is that of a U.S. soldier involved in the capture of Venezuela President Nicolas Maduro, who has been accused by federal prosecutors of using insider’s knowledge to place bets regarding the mission on the platform.
Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke, 38, made more than $400,000 by betting on different outcomes related to the Venezuela mission after learning of the operation, according to federal prosecutors and the FBI.
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