Democratic state Representative James Talarico is leading Republican state Attorney General Ken Paxton in the crucial race for a U.S. Senate seat in Texas, according to a poll from Texas Public Opinion Research released on Friday.
Paxton won the Senate GOP runoff, defeating Senator John Cornyn on Tuesday. President Donald Trump bolstered Paxton’s campaign with a late endorsement after going months without throwing his support behind a candidate following the March primary.
The race advanced to a runoff after neither Cornyn nor Paxton won a majority in March, setting up a nationally watched intraparty contest that could signal the GOP’s direction in a critical Sun Belt state while determining who faces Talarico in November.
The poll released on Friday shows Paxton has 44 percent of the vote compared to Talarico’s 47 percent and Libertarian Ted Brown’s 1 percent. The survey notes that 7 percent are undecided, and 2 percent say they would not vote in the election.
Newsweek reached out to both Talarico and Paxton’s campaigns via email on Friday for comment.
What To Know
The poll also asked undecideds which candidate they would lean toward and Paxton received 19 percent versus Talarico’s 17 percent and Brown’s 13 percent. Fifty percent still said they were not sure, the poll shows.
The survey was conducted among 1,670 likely voters on May 27 and May 28 and has a margin of error of 2.8 percent.
Talarico has a 47 percent favorability rating versus a 40 percent unfavorable rating. Paxton has a 38 percent favorability rating compared to a 57 percent unfavorable mark, the poll shows.
When respondents were asked who they feel better understands the economic challenges facing working Texans, Paxton has 40 percent and Talarico has 45 percent. Eight percent said neither candidate and 7 percent were not sure.
Overall, 75 percent say Paxton is too conservative and 60 percent say Talarico is too liberal, per the poll.
Paxton and other notable Republicans like U.S. Senator Ted Cruz and White House Deputy Chief of Staff for Policy and Homeland Security Advisor Stephen Miller have been going after Talarico since the runoff election win. Their jabs have included digs at Talarico over the American flag, whether he is a vegan or not, and his previous statements on gender and God.
Talarico has been pointing out previous controversies involving the Texas attorney general as well, as his campaign has called Paxton “the most corrupt politician in America.”
Race Downgrades to ‘Lean Republican’ After Paxton Win
The Cook Political Report moved the midterm race from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican” following Paxton’s win on Tuesday.
Cook breaks down races into seven categories, from “solid Republican” to “solid Democrat.” The Texas Senate race was in the “likely Republican” category, a position away from “solid Republican.” The move to “lean Republican” pushes the race closer to a “toss-up.”
Jessica Taylor, U.S. Senate and governors editor, wrote in the report, in part: “With state Attorney General Ken Paxton’s win in Tuesday’s Texas Senate runoff, national Republicans now have a candidate they’ve long assailed as the weaker general election nominee compared to incumbent Sen. John Cornyn.
“We agree with that assessment, and now that Republicans are saddled with a controversial candidate who’s been a weak fundraiser, we are shifting our rating from Likely to Lean Republican.”
Trump Reacts to Paxton’s Runoff Election Win
On Wednesday, Trump congratulated Paxton on his win and praised Cornyn for “having had a truly great career.”
On Truth Social, Trump said, “Congratulations to Ken Paxton on such a tremendous win, and to John Cornyn for having run a strong and powerful race but, more importantly, having had a truly great career. John will remain my friend for a long time to come, as we both watch Ken become a fantastic, common sense Senator, one who is respected by all. His opponent, Alfred E. Neuman, may be the worst TEXAS candidate I have ever seen.
“A strong Open Borders advocate, he is WEAK ON CRIME, believes there are 6 genders, is insulting to Jesus Christ, will never support the Military, was a big Mask Wearer until recently, and is a Vegan who dislikes meat, not exactly a good way to be if you’re wanting to win an Election in Texas. Jasmine Crockett, a very low IQ individual, who is no relation to the legendary frontiersman, Davy Crockett, would have been a far better choice for the Dumocrats. I will do some nice, big, beautiful rallies for Ken. Texas, this will be FUN! GOD BLESS AMERICA. President DJT.”
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