Exit polls after Sunday’s first round of the snap parliamentary election in France showed the far-right National Rally (RN) winning Sunday’s first round, but the final result will depend on days of horsetrading before the July 7 run-off. The RN might win in the end, but may end up without an absolute majority.
What happens then, and can political paralysis be avoided after the election?
The short answer is, no one knows for sure. Article 8 of the constitution says the president appoints the prime minister, but does not say which criteria he should use.
In practice, President Emmanuel Macron would be expected to offer the job to the leading parliamentary group – which opinion polls and the first round of voting suggest will be the eurosceptic, anti-immigration RN.
Loading
Will RN Chief Jordan Bardella be prime minister?
The RN has said party leader Jordan Bardella is its candidate for prime minister but has also said it will turn down the job if it and its allies together do not win an absolute majority of at least 289 seats.
Since the constitution does not say how he should choose his prime minister, Macron could, in theory, try to pull together an anti-RN alliance and offer the job to another party, or someone who is not politically affiliated.
If not Bardella, who?
The constitution does not provide any specific answer. Options would include:
– trying to strike an alliance of mainstream parties. No such alliance exists now but Macron has urged parties to unite to keep out the far-right.
– offering the job to the left, if an alliance including the far-left, Socialist Party and Greens emerges as the second-biggest group, as opinion polls suggest. The left could then try to form a minority government.
What happens if there is now deal?
It’s possible that none of the three groups – the far-right, centrists and left – will be big enough to govern alone, reach a coalition deal or get assurances it can run a viable minority government.
In such a case, France would risk political paralysis, with little or no legislation being adopted and a caretaker government running basic daily affairs.
Reuters
Read the full article here
