Secretary of State Marco Rubio has jumped double digits in polling of potential 2028 Republican primary candidates as Vice President JD Vance has sunk, surveys from Emerson College Polling show.
Speculation of early positioning by potential candidates has continued, as polling since 2025 has suggested close hypothetical contests between Vance and prominent Democrats while highlighting uncertainty within both parties.
Vance was recently asked about running on a potential ticket with Rubio by Newsweek during a White House news conference earlier this month. Responding to President Donald Trump calling the pair a “dream team,” Vance said that Americans would likely unfavorably view “someone who’s barely been in one office for a year and a half angling for a job two and a half years down the road,” adding, “There are few topics I want to talk about less.”
No candidate has formally announced their candidacy.
“The President has assembled an all-star team that has achieved unprecedented success in just over one year. No amount of crazed media speculation about Vice President Vance and Secretary Rubio will deter this Administration’s mission of fighting for the American people,” White House Communications Director Steven Cheung told Newsweek in a statement on Thursday.
Newsweek also reached out to the State Department via email on Thursday for comment.
What To Know
Rubio landed 34.6 percent of the potential vote versus Vance’s 35.5 percent in the latest Emerson poll. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis came in a distant third with 5.4 percent and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley won 4.6 percent. The poll also shows that 1 percent would pick someone else and 15 percent are undecided.
The survey was taken on May 24 and May 25 among 432 likely Republican primary voters and has a credibility interval of 4.7 percent. It also shows previous surveys conducted by the pollster and where Rubio, Vance, DeSantis, Haley and undecideds landed.
In one taken in February, Vance had 52 percent compared to Rubio’s 20 percent. DeSantis had 6 percent and Haley garnered 3 percent. The poll noted that 11 percent were undecided.
In an August survey, Vance also had 52 percent, and Rubio had 9 percent. DeSantis had 7 percent, Haley had 4 percent and 11 percent were undecided again.
“The Republican primary has shifted significantly since February, when 52% supported Vance and 20% Rubio; the potential 2028 contenders now compete evenly,” executive director of Emerson College Polling Spencer Kimball said in the poll. “Rubio has found support among Republican Primary voters over 50, who support him by a six-point margin over Vance, 41% to 35%, while Vance leads the younger Republican vote under 50, 37% to 26%.”
Columbia University professor Robert Y. Shapiro told Newsweek on Thursday that, “Rubio has clearly overshadowed Vance on the Iran war and foreign policy. And outperformed as a national leader, leaving Vance behind. And we know that Trump’s effort at regime change was not a priority for Vance to say the least. It is far too early for them to declare their candidacy. And they will be taking their cues from Trump.”
Shapiro added that “[Trump’s] endorsement means everything here unless he falls into deep disfavor even among more of his base. With Rubio’s star rising, Vance’s best chance at becoming president could be the 25th Amendment with a sharply faltering or increasingly ill Trump.”
On the Democratic side, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg landed 18 percent compared to California Governor Gavin Newsom with 16 percent in Thursday’s poll.
New York Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has 11 percent and former Vice President Kamala Harris and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro garnered 10 percent apiece. Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear has 9 percent and 18 percent are undecided.
What 2028 Polls Show
A poll from Echelon Insights last month shows Harris has 22 percent of the potential vote compared to Newsom’s 21 percent, Buttigieg’s 12 percent and Ocasio-Cortez’s 10 percent. Another 10 percent of respondents are unsure.
On the Republican side, the poll shows Vance with 42 percent of the vote compared to Rubio’s 14 percent, Donald Trump Jr.’s 10 percent and DeSantis’ 8 percent. The survey notes that 13 percent are unsure.
The poll surveyed 1,012 voters in the likely electorate from April 17 to April 20, and has a 3.5 percent margin of error.
A Harvard/Harris poll taken from April 23 to April 26 shows Vance has 48 percent compared to Trump Jr.’s 18 percent and Rubio’s 16 percent. DeSantis landed 9 percent, 4 percent said Tucker Carlson and 4 percent were undecided. The poll surveyed 2,745 registered voters and had a 1.87 percent margin of error.
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