Democrat Mary Peltola is holding a lead over incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan, a new poll from Alaska Survey Research shows on Tuesday.
Democrats are attempting to retake the House and Senate in the upcoming November midterms, but the Senate is likely a steeper climb, as this year’s map offers few obvious opportunities for flips. The GOP holds a 53-47 majority in the Senate, so Democrats need to pick up four seats to win control or three seats to tie, although Vice President JD Vance would serve as a tiebreaker.
Historically, the party in the White House loses seats during the midterm election cycle. Democrats hope President Donald Trump’s declining approval rating could give them an edge in key races this year and ultimately flip both chambers of Congress. Trump is also facing declining approval scores on policy issues like the economy and immigration along with drops in approval from key voting blocs like millennials and independents.
The president has, however, landed key primary wins as Republican Senator Bill Cassidy lost his race, as did Republican Congressman Thomas Massie. Trump backed both of their opponents.
Newsweek reached out to Peltola and Sullivan’s campaigns via email on Tuesday for comment.
What To Know
According to the poll, Peltola has 48.4 percent compared to Sullivan’s 43.8 percent. Potential Republican candidates Dustin Darden and Gerald Heikes landed 5.1 percent and 2.7 percent, respectively.
The poll was taken from May 14 to May 17 among 1,401 likely voters, with a 3 percent margin of error.
In a survey taken last month by the pollster, Peltola received 49.1 percent of the vote compared to Sullivan’s 42.5 percent. Potential independent candidate Sid Hill received 3.2 percent in the survey and possible Republican hopeful James Ryan had 5.2 percent. That survey was taken from April 16 to April 19 among 1,946 likely voters, with a 2.5 percent margin of error.
Regarding last month’s poll, a campaign spokesperson for Peltola previously responded in a statement to Newsweek, saying, “Alaskans know that Mary is a fighter who will stand up to anyone to take on the rigged system in DC and put Alaska first. From Nome to Juneau, and every community in between, Mary is building a broad coalition of excited Alaskans who are ready to fire self-serving Dan Sullivan this November.”
The state’s primary election is scheduled for August, and the general is set for November 3.
What Other Polls Show About the Race
An Alaska Survey Research poll in March also gave Peltola an advantage, with 48.8 percent of respondents backing her, compared to 43.5 percent for Sullivan, in a hypothetical round 1 vote. Potential Republican candidate Christopher Miklos landed 5.2 percent and potential Democratic hopeful Ann Diener had 2.4 percent.
The poll was conducted from March 19 to March 22 among 1,590 Alaskan adults and 1,512 registered voters, with a margin of error of 2.7 percent.
The Cook Political Report has rated the race Lean Republican, giving incumbent Sullivan the edge.
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