The first weekend of November certainly did not disappoint. Last weekend, nine of 14 games were decided by a touchdown or less (including five by a field goal or less). If Week 9 was any indication, we’re in for a thrilling second half of the 2025 NFL campaign.
This weekend’s slate features a handful of huge games between playoff contenders, including:
- Patriots vs. Bucs in a clash between two first-place teams (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)
- a massive NFC West matchup between the Rams and Niners (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)
- Steelers vs. Chargers on SNF in a key game for AFC playoff seeding (SNF)
- Eagles vs. Packers, with massive implications in the battle for the 1-seed in the NFC (MNF)
And we haven’t even mentioned the handful of notable players who will be making their debut with their new team.
While former Jets DL Quinnen Williams’ new squad, the Cowboys, is on the bye, star corner Sauce Gardner (traded from the Jets to the Colts), wide receiver Rashid Shaheed (traded from the Saints to the Seahawks) and outside linebacker Jaelan Phillips (traded from the Dolphins to the Eagles) could all see their first action in their new uniforms.
Before we dive into this week’s picks, it’s worth noting that the betting favorites went just 5-9 ATS in Week 9 after an 11-2 showing in Week 8. Notable upsets in Week 9 included the Panthers over the Packers as two-touchdown dogs at Lambeau and the Vikings — who were catching 8.5 points in Detroit — over the Lions in Detroit.
The four teams on the bye this weekend are the Bengals, Cowboys, Titans and Chiefs.
Early NFL ATS Picks YTD Record: 72-64
All odds below via DraftKings; all kickoff times EDT
Raiders at Broncos (-9.5) — Thurs., 8:15 p.m. (Prime Video)
Pick: Raiders +9.5
The favorites cruised on TNF the last two weeks, but I think we’ll get a tight Thursday nighter this week.
The Raiders (2-6) are coming off of their best offensive performance of the season in an overtime loss to the Jaguars, while the Broncos (7-2) eked out a tough road win over the Texans last Sunday.
Las Vegas QB Geno Smith has had two of his best games of the year in the last three weeks. He’s also only — hear me out here, please — been intercepted twice and sacked five times in his last three games. While that doesn’t quite constitute “clean football,” it is a massive step in the right direction for a guy was sacked 16 times and intercepted nine times in the first five weeks of the season.
I also like the Raiders on the spread given that five of Denver’s seven wins this year came by 8 points or fewer. In just the last four weeks, Denver needed last-second heroics in a 3-point win over the 3-5 Texans, a 1-point win over the 2-7 Giants and a 2-point win over the 1-7 Jets.
Falcons at* Colts (-6.5) — Sun., 9:30 a.m. (NFL Network)
Pick: Falcons +6.5
The Colts (7-2) came crashing back to Earth last Sunday after a red-hot start, losing 27-20 to the Steelers on a five-turnover day by QB Daniel Jones.
The Falcons (3-5) looked like legit contenders after a convincing Week 5 win over the Bills improved their record to 3-2, but they followed that up with two awful days offensively in double-digit losses to the 49ers and the Dolphins. Now, they enter Week 10 on a three-game losing streak.
Atlanta played much better in a 1-point loss to the Patriots on the road last Sunday, but there are major concerns on the O-line after starting guards Matthew Bergeron and Chris Lindstrom had to leave the Pats game early.
Assuming those two are able to return to a unit that lost starting RT Kaleb McGary before the season, I expect Atlanta to score enough to once again cover in a tough game away from home.
*This week’s international game takes place at Olympic Stadium in Berlin, Germany.
Saints at Panthers (-5.5) — Sun., 1 p.m. (FOX)
Pick: Panthers -5.5
This line opened at Panthers -4.5 and quickly moved to Panthers -5.5. That’s where it has remained, even after the Saints (1-8) sent WR Rashid Shaeed to the Seahawks and right tackle Trevor Penning to the Chargers ahead of the trade deadline
New Orleans opened QB Tyler Shough’s first NFL start last Sunday vs. the Rams with four three-and-outs in its first five possessions. It also struggled on defense, giving up 281 yards passing and 171 on the ground.
The Panthers (5-4) have gone 5-2 since an 0-2 start, and their running game makes it hard to pick against them at home, especially against a team dealing with as many issues as the Saints are right now.
Giants at Bears (-3.5) — Sun., 1 p.m. (FOX)
Pick: Bears -3.5
The Bears (5-3) D is struggling amid a number of injuries in the secondary, but this suddenly balanced offense is rolling, with at least 145 yards rushing in three of its last four games.
The Giants (2-7) have already beaten two likely playoff teams in the Chargers and the Eagles, and they nearly took down the Broncos in Week 7. That being said, I don’t quite trust Big Blue — which is allowing a league-worst 5.5 yards per carry — to come up with enough stops to cover here.
Bills (-9.5) at Dolphins — Sun., 1 p.m. (CBS)
Pick: Bills -9.5
The Dolphins (2-7) already played the Bills (6-2) tough once this season. But after seeing what happened last Sunday (when Buffalo RB James Cook picked up 114 yards on 27 carries, after Miami allowed Baltimore to rush for 150 yards on TNF), I expect Buffalo to take control of this game early.
The Bills’ run-heavy offense — which has piled up a league-high 1,292 yards in just eight games — should dominate this one and allow Buffalo to not only win, but cover the substantial spread. It is worth noting, though, that Cook missed practice on Wednesday.
Patriots at Buccaneers (-2.5) — Sun., 1 p.m. (CBS)
Pick: Buccaneers -2.5
There aren’t many teams in the league that I would trust to comfortably beat the Patriots (7-2) right now.
The Bucs (6-2) have been impressive despite a number of injuries, and they could finally have WR Chris Godwin Jr. and RB Bucky Irving back this weekend. The return of that duo would provide a huge boost for an offense that looked overmatched in its last matchup against a contender, a 24-9 Week 7 loss in Detroit.
This might be the biggest stay-away of the weekend, but if I have to take a side, I’ll lean toward the Bucs, barely. If nothing else, Tampa Bay is fresh off of a much-needed bye. The Patriots have won six games in a row, but they are coming off a draining win over the Falcons that was aided by a missed PAT by Atlanta with five less than five minutes remaining.
Ravens (-3.5) at Vikings — Sun., 1 p.m. (FOX)
Pick: Vikings +3.5
Just when it looked like the Vikings (4-4) might be an easy out the rest of the way, they responded with a massive upset of the Lions in Detroit. Following an ugly loss to the Chargers in Week 8 and the news that Carson Wentz would miss the rest of the season, Minnesota was expected to have a long day vs. the Lions. Instead, this team bullied one of the top NFC playoff contenders from start to finish.
The version of the Ravens that we saw last week looked much better than this team’s 3-5 record. Still, I’m not convinced Baltimore is going to win this one with much room to spare. The Brian Flores-led Minnesota D should be able to keep Baltimore in check, especially if Lamar Jackson is once again hesitant to run the football in his second game back after missing three games with a hamstring injury.
Browns (-2.5) at Jets — Sun., 1 p.m. (CBS)
Pick: Jets -2.5
Few teams have ever given up more at a trade deadline than the Jets (1-7) just did. That makes predicting the rest of New York’s season, starting Sunday against the Browns (2-6), a tough task.
The obvious play here would be to fade the team that just traded away its two best defensive players. Personally, though, I can’t shake the feeling that the Jets will find a way to keep this one close against a Browns team with a great defense but an offense that is ranked dead-last, or close to it, in several key statistical categories, including yards per play and net yards per pass attempt.
Jaguars (-1.5) at Texans — Sun., 1 p.m. (CBS)
Pick: Jaguars -1.5
The line has flipped followed following the news that CJ Stroud (concussion) will miss this game, with Jacksonville (5-3) moving from a slight road underdog to a 1.5-point favorite.
The Houston offense has struggled all season with Stroud under center. That makes it hard to imagine the Texans (3-5) moving the ball with backup Davis Mills at the helm. I don’t think the Jags are as good as their 5-3 record, and I wouldn’t take them to cover a bigger spread than this one. I do, however, think Trevor Lawrence and Co. will be able to score just enough to get a much-needed win.
Cardinals at Seahawks (-6.5) — Sun., 4:05 p.m. (CBS)
Pick: Seahawks -6.5
When these teams met in Glendale back in Week 4, the Seahawks (6-2) led 20-6 early in the fourth quarter, but ended up needing a last-second field goal to win that game in regulation. The Cardinals (3-5) just snapped a five-game winning streak with a win over the Cowboys on Monday Night Football, and they’ve yet to lose a game by more than 4 points all year.
Arizona has also looked much better offensively the last three weeks, with Jacoby Brissett playing well in place of Kyler Murray against the Colts, Packers and Seahawks.
I’m going to roll the dice and take Seattle -6.5, though. Now that it’s finally healthy, this defense is going to overwhelm a lot of offenses the rest of the way. And on offense, red-hot Seahawks QB Sam Darnold now has a much-needed deep threat, Rashid Shaheed, to complement breakout star Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
JSN accounting for a whopping 45 percent of Seattle’s total receiving yards (948 of 2,099) to date has not prevented this team from comfortably leading the league in net yards per pass attempt (8.9). Still, the Seahawks will be that much more difficult to stop now that opposing defenses have another legit pass-catching threat to account for.
Rams (-4.5) at 49ers — Sun., 4:25 p.m. (FOX)
Pick: Rams -4.5
Can Mac Jones and the Niners stun the Rams for the second time this season?
This weekend, the Rams (6-2) are clear road favorites in a rematch with one of just two teams that has beaten them this year. Back in Week 5, San Francisco (6-3) jumped out to a 17-7 lead early en route to a 26-23 overtime win in L.A. on Thursday Night Football.
The Niners averaged just 2.2 yards per carry on the ground in that game, but Jones leaned on WR Kendrick Bourne (10 catches for 142 yards) to dice up the Rams secondary on a night when San Francisco was without Jauan Jennings, Ricky Pearsall and George Kittle.
With Jennings and Kittle back in the lineup for this game, the Niners should be able to move the ball well enough to keep this one close for a while. The question is whether the San Francisco defense can get enough stops to give this offense a chance. With stars Nick Bosa and Fred Warner both out for the year, the Niners struggled defensively against the Texans and Giants the last two weeks. On Sunday, they face a much tougher test against Matthew Stafford and Co.
Another close one between these NFC West rivals wouldn’t shock me, but assuming the Rams can avoid the turnovers that killed them in the previous meeting, I think L.A. will be able to win this game by a touchdown.
Lions (-7.5) at Commanders — Sun., 4:25 p.m. (FOX)
Pick: Lions -7.5
Good teams occasionally just lay an egg against a division rival, and that’s how I’m choosing to interpret the Lions’ (5-3) home loss to the Vikings last Sunday. Dan Campbell’s teams traditionally play well after a loss. This year, that’s been an understatement. Detroit thumped Chicago 52-21 one week after a season-opening loss to Green Bay. And after a 30-17 loss to Kansas City in Week 6, the Lions beat Tampa Bay 24-9 the following week.
The Commanders (3-6) have lost four in a row after a 3-2 start, and they were uncompetitive each of the last three weeks. I’m not expecting Marcus Mariota, who is making his fourth start of the season, to keep this one close for 60 minutes.
Steelers at Chargers (-3) — Sun., 8:20 p.m. (NBC)
Pick: Steelers +3
I still have my doubts about the Steelers (5-3), even after last week’s impressive win over the Colts, but I expect them to push the Chargers, if not pull off the upset on SNF.
L.A. (6-3) — which lost one star tackle, Rashawn Slater, before the season kicked off — has been great with Joe Alt in the lineup. Unfortunately, Alt’s season is now over as well, as he is set to undergo season-ending ankle surgery. It would be an understatement to say that the Chargers have struggled without him. They were upset by both the Giants in Week 4, when he was limited to 10 snaps, and the Commanders in Week 5 (to say nothing of their narrow Week 6 win over the lowly Dolphins or their 38-24 loss to the Colts in Week 7).
Fresh off its best defensive performance of the season — the Steelers sacked Colts QB Daniel Jones five times last week and forced Jones alone into five turnovers — give me Pittsburgh to cover against a Chargers team that is yet to prove it can beat quality competition without at least one of its stud tackles.
Eagles at Packers (-2.5) — Mon., 8:15 p.m. (ABC, ESPN)
Pick: Eagles +2.5
Could the Packers (5-2-1) really lose two in a row at Lambeau Field? Green Bay was on the wrong end of one of the biggest upsets in years last Sunday, losing to the Panthers as two-touchdown underdogs.
Philadelphia (6-2) bounced back strong from back-to-back baffling losses in Weeks 5 and 6, handling the Vikings and the Giants in their last two games before their Week 9 bye.
Now, with linebacker Jaelan Phillips filling a massive need at edge rusher — and multiple recently acuired corners including former Packer Jaire Alexander giving DC Vic Fangio a few more options, if nothing else, in the secondary — the Eagles strike me as a live dog on MNF.
I’d probably give Green Bay the benefit of the doubt at home if not for the season-ending injury to Tucker Kraft. But with Jordan Love’s top target to date now out for the season with a torn ACL, I’m skeptical of a Packers offense that A) just scored 13 points against the Panthers and B) is without its top weapon for the first time all year.
Can Green Bay finish drives with touchdowns without Kraft, who has hauled in six of Love’s 13 TD passes this year?
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