A deal on aged care reform is finally within sight after months of negotiations in parliament over a looming shortfall in new places for older Australians in residential aged care and nursing homes.

In a new signal about a deal, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese told Labor caucus members on Tuesday morning to expect a major reform package soon, while a Labor source said the outcome could come “very shortly”.

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The new package will respond to a taskforce report delivered last year and the dire findings Royal Commission into Aged Care about the neglect of people in care. The most contentious change will expect aged care residents with higher incomes to pay more for food and accommodation and similar services. Essential health services will be funded by the federal government in full, as they are today.

Aged Care Minister Anika Wells told the caucus about the negotiations with the Coalition and acknowledged that the government had agreed to remove plans to impose criminal penalties on the directors of aged care homes who fail basic standards. This concession helps achieve a compromise with the Coalition, as we reported this morning.

The fact that Albanese and Wells addressed the caucus about the package is a strong sign that the reform plan is imminent, and Labor is increasingly confident it can reach a broad agreement with Coalition aged care spokeswoman Anne Ruston and her colleagues. Wells told the caucus about new support for people who stay at home, a big issue for hundreds of thousands of people receiving Home Care assistance to subsidise services they need.

As we reported today, aged care expert Grant Corderoy, a senior partner at accounting firm StewartBrown and a member of the government taskforce, is warning that Australia needs at least 25,000 more beds by 2030 to keep up with demand. Without change, he says, aged care providers will not invest in new capacity.

“If we don’t get an increase in funding from consumers for their everyday living costs and accommodation in residential aged care, we’ve got a capital strike – meaning no major investment in building new homes,” he said.

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