Scientists have warned that New Orleans could become an island by 2070, and that relocating its population may be necessary if sea levels rise to higher projections.
Louisiana is known for being a particularly low-lying region, which makes it no surprise that New Orleans, a city of around 360,000 people, is vulnerable to sea-level rise. The wetlands that surround the city act as a buffer against hurricanes and storm surges, but these are also disappearing, and losing more of them could increase flood risk.
The experts, from multiple institutions including Tulane University, Yale University, Florida State University, and Coastal Carolina University, projected in a study released in May that the city could lose 75 percent of its wetlands by 2070, leaving it surrounded by the Gulf of Mexico, if sea levels rise by the 3 meters (9.8 feet) many scientists believe is possible.
However, if sea levels were to rise by 7 meters (23 feet)—a projection some scientists think could happen much further down the line—the experts said no coastal defense would be effective enough to protect the city. The region has “crossed the point of no return,” the paper’s authors wrote.
In light of the finding, Newsweek spoke to experts about the implications of relocating the entire city of New Orleans—and what could be done instead.
Would New Orleans Have To Move?
It is difficult to fathom what moving New Orleans would look like, as relocations in the past have not been anything close to the same scale. That said, Hurricane Katrina meant New Orleans lost around half of its population, as much of the city was destroyed and 80 percent of it was flooded.
The cities that received the most evacuees from New Orleans were Houston, Atlanta, Baton Rouge, and Tampa, Linda Shi, director of the Master of Regional Planning Program at Cornell University, told Newsweek.
However, “our existing buyouts program has moved a little over 40,000 people over the last several decades—it’s nowhere near up to the task of moving whole cities,” she added. “Relocation is incredibly complex, often painful and traumatic, and rarely done well.”
Could New Orleans Be Moved?
So, despite the scientists’ warning that New Orleans might have to relocate its population if sea levels rise to higher-than-projected levels, other experts were not so sure this was feasible.
This was partly because the city’s “significant economic and cultural assets” mean that “city-wide relocation is not a viable option,” Sam Brody, director of the Institute for a Disaster Resilient Texas at Texas A&M University, told Newsweek. He instead believed that a “more nuanced strategy could focus on protecting communities in place through technological innovation and development-based strategies.”
Miyuki Hino, an associate professor of city and regional planning at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, also told Newsweek that “relocation or retreat is rarely an all-or-nothing situation, so I don’t think that the outcomes are as black-and-white as implied.”
Though she said that the paper shows “there are very clear, serious risks to the livability of that area, and all responses should be on the table.”
Zhong-Ren Peng, director of the International Center for Adaptation Planning and Design at the University of Florida, also told Newsweek this paper shows New Orleans “faces very serious long-term risk from sea-level rise, but long-term risk does not require near-term surrender.”
He said that he did not support the “immediate relocation” of New Orleans, and that “neither framing — complete relocation or business as usual — quite captures the reality.”
“What New Orleans faces is a long-term trajectory that requires honest acknowledgment and proactive preparation: stronger coastal restoration, smarter zoning, and policies that enhance residents’ adaptive capacity over time,” he said. “New Orleans anchors one of North America’s most strategically important port systems and an irreplaceable cultural heritage — that argues for serious, sustained investment in its future, not premature abandonment.”
Moving New Orleans – The Implications
Losing New Orleans would have implications felt nationwide. The port of New Orleans and the lower Mississippi River complex are “a critical gateway for U.S. agricultural exports and industrial freight,” Peng said, adding that the “ripple effects of its loss would be felt nationwide.”
Additionally, the wetlands that surround the city are home to a huge range of wildlife, as well as acting as natural storm buffers. “Their ongoing loss is an environmental crisis independent of the city’s fate, and it is accelerating,” Peng said.
Culturally, New Orleans is also “arguably the most distinctive city in the U.S. — a living confluence of African, French, Spanish, and Indigenous heritage expressed in music, cuisine, architecture, and community life that exists nowhere else on earth,” Peng added.
“Culture travels with people, but the physical place that shaped and sustained it cannot be replicated,” he added. “Its loss would be an irreversible impoverishment not just for Louisiana but for American civilization.”
What Could Be Done Instead?
Instead of relocating all of New Orleans, experts have said there are a number of other alternatives available to the city – particularly around adapting it to make it more resilient to future environmental challenges.
Brody said that he would “recommend that decision-makers prioritize building a resilient city that can adapt to future environmental changes, such as sea-level rise and subsidence, rather than abandoning one of America’s greatest cities altogether.”
Hino said that a combination of “engineering approaches, non-structural ones (such as insurance, evacuation planning, building codes), and yes, changing land use in some areas from being inhabited to being uninhabited” could all be implemented. “It’s not a matter of choosing a single approach, it’s a matter of combining them to best meet local needs,” she said.
Peng said that some concrete priorities the city could take on include being smart about “zoning and permitting.”
“Stop incentivizing new, long-lived development in areas projected to face chronic inundation within typical mortgage and infrastructure timeframes,” he said. “This single reform would cost relatively little and prevent enormous future harm.”
He also said that investing in “flexible, water-compatible infrastructure and design — what planners call “accommodation” strategies — that lives with water rather than fights it” could be another priority. “Centuries of experience in Venice and the Netherlands demonstrate what this looks like in practice,” he said.
Peng added that while “geological science is sobering and we should take it seriously,” the appropriate response to a long-term existential challenge is “not panic or premature surrender — it is the kind of proactive, humble, people-centered preparation that has allowed human communities to thrive on dynamic landscapes throughout history.”
“Prepare for it. Invest in resilience. Trust people to adapt. But don’t give up,” he said.
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