On Sunday, the Divisional Round of the 2025 NFL Playoffs rolls along with a pair of fascinating matchups showcasing four of the most entertaining quarterbacks in the league.
Before Matthew Stafford visits Caleb Williams and the Bears at Soldier Field, NFL MVP contender Drake Maye and the Patriots (14-3) welcome CJ Stroud and the Texans (12-5) to Gillette Stadium in Foxborough. The Texans’ last loss came back in Week 9, and the Patriots have gone 14-1 since starting the season 1-2.
Defense led the way for both 5-seed Houston and 2-seed New England in their Wild Card victories.
Houston led Pittsburgh 7-6 entering the fourth quarter, but ended up winning that game 30-6 thanks to a pair of defensive touchdowns in the final stanza. The Pats did not find the end zone until the fourth quarter of their 16-3 win over the Chargers, but their defense did not allow L.A. to drive inside the 30-yard line once across five second-half possessions.
Below, let’s dive into the Texans vs. Patriots odds at Kalshi, break down the key to this matchup and offer a prediction.
The old adage in betting is that homefield is worth 3 points, and sportsbooks including FanDuel and DraftKings both currently have the spread for this game set at Patriots -3.
Since their wins last weekend set up this showdown, trading activity at Kalshi has given New England a slight edge. The Patriots had a 63% chance and the Texans a 39% chance when this market opened, and as of Friday night, these teams’ probabilities of winning this game have not changed.
The Pats’ 63% chance is equivalent to American odds of -170, while the Texans’ 39% chance translates to +156 in American odds.
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Trade On Texans vs. Patriots AFC Divisional Game At Kalshi
Texans (5) vs. Patriots (2) Analysis, Prediction
It would be an understatement to say that neither the Texans nor the Patriots played championship-caliber offense last weekend, and yet they both won comfortably.
Obvious as it may seem, the under strikes me as a great bet in this game, even at the low total of 40.5.
The real question is who will advance. My early pick is the Texans, who should be able to exploit one of the Patriots’ biggest weaknesses this season.
Burning Question: Can Maye Avoid Texans’ Dominant Pass Rush?
Drake Maye had a terrific regular season by just about every statistical measure, and his MVP case is intriguing, at the very least. Maye’s resume did have one glaring flaw, though: he was sacked 47 times, and his sack rate of 8.72 was substantially worse than the league-average of 6.87.
Based on their performance against the Chargers, Maye’s ability to avoid sacks and the Pats’ pass-blocking issues are going to be massive obstacles this postseason. Maye was sacked five times by L.A. last Sunday night. The Chargers were a solid defensive team in 2025, but they finished tied-10th in regular-season sacks, with 45, and tied-12th in pressure rate (23.6 percent).
There’s good news and bad news for the Pats upon a closer look at how Maye responded to pressure against L.A. On the bright side, he was pressured on just 6 of his 39 total dropbacks (29 pass attempts + 5 sacks + 5 scrambles), for a pressure rate of just 15.4%. New England will happily take a pressure rate in that ballpark going forward, but the fact that Maye went down on all but one of those pressures is a major cause for concern.
New England’s versatile young QB is certainly a much more mobile target than Aaron Rodgers, whom the Texans sacked four times and pressured 13 times in 37 dropbacks.
Still, Will Anderson Jr., Danielle Hunter and the Texans loom as a brutal matchup for Maye after dominating a number of elite quarterbacks this year, including Josh Allen. The Bills’ star was sacked eight (!) times in the Texans’ 23-19 win over Buffalo in Week 12.
Houston also sacked Patrick Mahomes twice and intercepted him three times in a 20-10 road win in Week 14, and it got to Justin Herbert five times in a 20-16 road win in Week 17.
One last note on the Houston pass rush, which has a chance to carry this team all the way to a Super Bowl title, à la Michael Strahan and the Giants back in 2007: their 13 pressures of Rodgers came on a night when they blitzed just three times, per Pro Football Reference. That was not an anomaly, either — the Texans were among the league leaders in sacks in the regular season, with 47, despite blitzing at the fifth-lowest rate league-wide.
Will New England Sustain Its Recent Rushing Success?
Teams that can run the ball effectively should, in theory, be able to neutralize the Texans’ pass rush.
On the surface, the Pats don’t exactly fit that bill after averaging just 4.2 yards per carry in the regular season. But it’s worth noting that New England has been running the ball better in recent weeks than it did for most of the season.
The Pats have run for at least 146 yards — a number they have eclipsed just seven times in 18 games — in four of their last five games, with Maye and Rhamondre Stevenson both emerging as big-play threats down the stretch. Maye has recorded at least one run of 11 yards or longer in six of his last seven games, including a 37-yarder against L.A. last week.
Stevenson’s been a big-play machine as a runner and a receiver lately. He has picked up 332 rushing yards on just 39 carries (8.5 ypc) in his last five games, while adding 12 catches for 179 yards in his last four games, including a 48-yard catch-and-run for Maye’s longest completion of the night in last Sunday’s win over the Chargers.
Prediction: Texans to advance
In a collision of two offenses I have my doubts about, I’ll take the Texans’ dominant defense to spark an 11th straight victory for a team that started the year 3-5. Speaking of Houston’s winning streak, this is a good place to note that the Texans have won as the betting underdog four times during their winning streak, including three times on the road.
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