This feels like the warmest winter in Brisbane in years. But is it?

If you believe your own senses when stepping outside the front door, it is distinctly warm this winter.

After some initial wet weather, Brisbane is living up to its reputation for sun-soaked winter days that demand no more than a light jumper.

The city is experiencing its warmest start to winter in 10 years – if you look at the minimum overnight temperatures.

“We’ve had a real lack of cold spells,” Bureau of Meteorology senior forecaster Angus Hines said.

However, State of Origin fans should not be deceived by the relatively warmer temperatures.

The thermostat is set to dip to 16 degrees about kick-off for the series decider on Wednesday night and could drop to a sobering 14 degrees after halftime.

It may feel even colder inside Suncorp, due to the stadium’s open roof, making Maroon scarves, beanies and jumpers appropriate attire for fans at the game.

June recorded just one cold snap, on the 18th and 19th, when Brisbane would usually have three or four.

Hines said a large, stubborn high-pressure system centred over Tasmania had stopped blasts of cold air reaching Queensland.

“Typically in winter, we get periodic bursts of cold weather from the Southern Ocean,” he said.

“But with that big high pressure over the southeast of the country, that door to the Southern Ocean was just forced shut.

“None of those cold fronts could penetrate across Australia … let alone Queensland.”

The temperature only dipped below 10 degrees in Brisbane on three occasions last month, with the coldest morning of 7.4 degrees recorded on June 2.

Those who left the house wearing a scarf and jumper that day were peeling off layers by mid-morning as the temperature climbed to a balmy 25.7 degrees.

The city’s mean minimum temperature for June was 10 degrees – the warmest since 2016. The warmest on record was 12 degrees in 1967.

The relatively pleasant, warmer-than-average conditions are set to continue for at least another week.

“There are still no real signs of any particularly strong cold outbreaks,” Hines said.

“We see another huge high-pressure area over Tasmania. It’s a little bit different this time for Queensland because we do have a bit of a south-easterly wind for the coast … but it’s not a proper winter cold blast, that’s for sure.

“We’re going to be holding on to a pretty settled, mild and warmer-than-average pattern, without any taste of the Southern Ocean.”

But it is winter after all.

“We’ll get a cold morning in a few weeks, I’m sure, and everyone will get a bit of a rude shock,” Hines said.

Research has suggested that people can only reliably remember climate for up to eight years.

You may also feel colder inside because your home is not insulated properly. Many Australian houses are too cold in winter, too hot in summer, and unprepared for natural disasters.

The southern states have also experienced an unseasonably warm start to winter. It’s been a depressing start to the ski season in Victoria and NSW, with snow at a minimum.

Skiers and boarders are checking webcams daily and finding more green grass than snow, and with school holidays underway, many families have been desperately trying to cancel or move bookings that have cost them an arm and a leg.

This winter has also been affected by the onset of an El Nino weather pattern, declared by the bureau on June 16, which brings warmer and drier conditions.

The long-range forecast for Australia from July to September is for it to be hotter and drier than average for the time of year across the southern part of the continent, including south-east Queensland, NSW, Victoria and much of Western Australia, and a 60 per cent chance of it being unusually hot.

Several climate scientists forecast that 2027 will be the hottest year on record because of lagging effects of this El Nino.

With Caitlin Fitzsimmons

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