Representative Barry Moore, who has been endorsed by President Donald Trump in Alabama’s Senate race, trails fellow Republican Jared Hudson in a new poll released on the eve of the state’s primary.
The race, along with five other Republican primaries taking place Tuesday, is expected to test Trump’s political influence ahead of the midterms as he navigates slipping national approval ratings while largely maintaining his grip on the Republican Party.
The Quantus Insights poll finds the Trump-backed candidate may fall short of securing the nomination in what would be a notable setback for a president whose endorsements have often helped propel Republican candidates to victory. Other polls have shown a much closer race ahead of Tuesday.
The Senate race for Alabama’s seat is open because Senator Tommy Tuberville is running for governor instead of seeking another Senate term.
Newsweek reached out to Moore’s campaign via email and Hudson’s via contact form for comment on Tuesday.
What The New Poll Says
A Quantus Insights survey of 680 likely Alabama primary voters released on Monday night found that Hudson has a 9-point lead over Moore, 36 percent to Moore’s 27 percent.
The survey, which was conducted between May 15 and 17, also found Attorney General of Alabama Steve Marshall with 13.5 percent of the vote and a substantial block of undecided voters at 18 percent.
The pollster said, “Our Quantus Insights survey finds Hudson’s lead is especially notable because he is not merely benefiting from a fragmented field; he also performs strongly in the tested runoff scenario against Moore.”
In a hypothetical head-to-head run-off between Hudson and Moore, Hudson secures 48 percent to Moore’s 32.5 percent, with 19.4 percent undecided.
The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.
Trump’s Endorsement of Moore
Early on, Trump endorsed Moore, and on Monday, reemphasized his support for the Republican candidate in a video message posted on his Truth Social. “To the people of Alabama, Congressman Barry Moore was the first person in the whole country to endorse me, he was there early,” he said.
The video continued, “He will never let you down,” adding, “He represents everything that you like and that I like.”
Who Is Barry Moore?
Moore has served in the House as both a representative of Alabama’s 1st and 2nd congressional districts since 2021, having previously served in the Alabama House of Representatives.
Who is Jared Hudson?
Hudson is a former Navy SEAL who was deployed in Operation Iraqi Freedom and Operation Enduring Freedom. Marshall was appointed in 2017 to serve as attorney general of Alabama. He was elected to a full term in 2018 and had previously served as Marshall County District Attorney for 16 years.
Trump carried Alabama in 2024 with nearly 65 percent of the vote, receiving more than 1.46 million ballots, and it is notable that his endorsed candidate may not secure the nomination.
Likelihood of a Runoff
Given recent polling on the race, the Senate is likely to result in a runoff. In Alabama primaries, a candidate must win more than 50 percent of the vote to avoid a runoff. If no candidate receives a majority, the top two finishers advance to a runoff election.
“I don’t see any way to avoid a runoff,” Michael Lowry, a pollster who previously worked for Republican Representative Robert Aderholt, told AL.com
What Other Polls And Prediction Markets Show Ahead of Alabama Senate Primary
An April Cygnal poll found Moore ahead at 23 percent, compared with Marshall at 14 percent and Hudson at 19 percent. When undecided voters were pressed on which way they lean, Moore’s advantage increased to 36 percent, with Marshall and Hudson tied at 25 percent.
The Cygnal survey of 500 likely Republican primary voters was conducted between April 29-30, 2026, with a plus-or-minus 4.4 percent margin of error.
Meanwhile, a Tarrance Group poll conducted from April 11-14, 2026, of 500 likely Republican voters, with a margin of error of 4.9 percent in 95 out of 100 cases, found an even tighter three-way race, with Moore at 28 percent, Marshall at 27 percent, and Hudson at 24 percent.
Prediction market Kalshi puts Hudson at 50 percent, Moore at 52 percent and Marshall at 5 percent. Polymarket shows similar odds, with Hudson at 50 percent, Moore at 51 percent, and Marshall at 2 percent.
Other Tuesday Primaries
Voters in Georgia, Idaho, Kentucky, Oregon, and Pennsylvania are also heading to the polls to choose party nominees on May 19. The results will refine the November matchups for Senate, governor, and key House seats.
The race also comes as Trump targets Republican critics within his own party, including in Kentucky, where Representative Thomas Massie is facing a Trump-endorsed challenger in a closely watched primary expected to test the president’s influence over GOP voters ahead of the midterms.
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