New national polling shows President Donald Trump remains underwater nationwide and across key battleground states, with approval trailing disapproval 16 months into his second term.
Key Points
- Trump’s approval stands at 38 percent nationally, with 58 percent disapproval, based on a rolling Civiqs poll of more than 105,000 registered voters
- He is underwater in every major swing state, though margins remain relatively narrow
- Support remains strongest in deep red states like Wyoming (net approval: 24 percent) and West Virginia (18 percent)
- Opposition is entrenched in deep blue states, with disapproval topping 70 percent in Hawaii and Maryland
- The data comes from Civiqs’ daily online tracking poll, which uses a large national panel and statistical modeling
Why It Matters
Trump returned to office in January 2025 with strong Republican backing but limited support beyond his base, a dynamic that continues to define his presidency.
With midterms approaching, even small shifts in closely divided states could have outsized consequences for control of Congress.
Voters in a handful of swing states—where margins are tighter—are likely to play a decisive role.
State lines tell part of the story. The bigger divide, as shown in the chart below, is which demographic groups are backing Trump—and which are not.
What To Know
The latest data comes from Civiqs’ national online tracking poll of 105,525 registered voters, covering January 2025 through May 19, 2026.
Using a large in-house panel and statistical modeling, the survey produces rolling estimates of public opinion rather than a single snapshot.
Nationally, Trump’s approval stands at 38 percent, compared with 58 percent disapproval, leaving him clearly underwater with a net approval rating of -20.
The divide is stark. In Wyoming, nearly six in 10 voters approve of Trump’s job performance. In Hawaii, close to eight in 10 disapprove. Between those poles sits a narrow but politically critical middle ground.
Deep Red States: Strongholds Hold Firm
Support remains strongest across the Plains, South and parts of Appalachia, where Trump continues to command clear majorities or close to it.
Wyoming leads the country with 59 percent approval and 35 percent disapproval, while West Virginia posts 55 percent approval to 37 percent disapproval.
North Dakota, Oklahoma, Idaho and Tennessee all show similar patterns, with approval comfortably ahead of disapproval.
Here, the numbers point to durability. Views in these states appear settled, with Trump maintaining the kind of support that has long defined Republican strongholds.
Lean Red States: Margins Tighten
Outside the deepest red states, the picture becomes more mixed.
Indiana (49 percent approve, 45 percent disapprove), Kansas (49 to 44 percent) and Mississippi (49 to 46 percent) show Trump holding a narrow advantage.
Other states sit even closer to the line, including Missouri and Nebraska, where approval and disapproval are effectively tied.
In places like Kentucky and Louisiana, Trump edges slightly underwater.
These tighter margins suggest less uniform support than in the core Republican map—and a greater sensitivity to changes in national conditions.
Swing States: Underwater Across The Board
Every major battleground state shows Trump in negative territory, but not by overwhelming margins.
Arizona (42 percent approve, 53 percent disapprove) and North Carolina (41 to 55 percent) remain relatively tight. Pennsylvania posts 41 to 54 percent, while Wisconsin is close behind at 41 to 55 percent.
Michigan (38 to 57 percent) and Nevada (37 to 56 percent) show slightly wider gaps, while Georgia is among the more challenging swing states at 37 to 57 percent.
In other words, Trump is underwater everywhere that will likely decide future elections, but the deficits remain within a range that could shift under the right conditions.
With both parties entrenched elsewhere, a relatively small pool of voters could once again decide control of Congress.
Deep Blue States: Opposition Remains Entrenched
Along the West Coast and in the Northeast, opposition remains overwhelming.
Hawaii (77 percent disapprove) and Vermont (76 percent) post the highest disapproval levels, followed by Maryland (72 percent) and Massachusetts (70 percent). California, Washington and Oregon all show roughly two-thirds or more of voters disapproving.
Approval in these states rarely rises above 30 percent, underscoring deeply entrenched opposition rather than temporary dissatisfaction. Compared with earlier snapshots, there is little evidence of meaningful movement.
What’s Driving The Map
Demographic divides help explain why the map looks the way it does.
Younger voters remain the most opposed, with 70 percent of those aged 18–34 disapproving compared to 23 percent approving. By contrast, voters aged 50 and older are far more evenly split.
A gender gap is also pronounced. Men are close to evenly divided, while women disapprove by more than 30 points. Education widens the divide further, with approval dropping from 41 percent among non-college graduates to 25 percent among postgraduates.
Independents—often decisive in battleground states—lean clearly negative, with 31 percent approving and 61 percent disapproving, helping explain why Trump remains underwater in every swing state.
What The White House Says
The White House has consistently downplayed the significance of recent polling, instead pointing to Trump’s 2024 election victory as the clearest measure of public backing.
Spokesperson Davis Ingle pointed to the scale of that win, with roughly 80 million Americans casting ballots for Trump, and framed it as the administration’s primary mandate.
In comments that he has repeated many times, Ingle said the administration remains focused on what it describes as core economic priorities, including jobs, inflation and housing affordability, while arguing that the president’s policies are still taking effect.
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