The ‘witches’ brew’ of preference deals and how they’ll swing the result

This year, preference flows were hammered out between candidates and their teams over the course of one September weekend. Hakim said it involved “hundreds of phone calls” and “a pressure point with everyone trying to negotiate”.

The last-minute deals had resulted in “incoherent alliances forming” and a “witches’ brew of preferences and cross preference flows”, said the anonymous lord mayoral candidate

Another council insider, who did not want to be identified, said it was a “wild” weekend with “trips all over the city and meetings and just wheeling and dealing”.

The result was the smaller parties ended up preferencing each other over the larger ones.

Election analyst Ben Raue said that could give one of them a chance to rise, gaining enough of the vote to be competitive.

“The sixteen groups [in the ballot for councillors] creates a great amount of potential for someone to win off a small primary vote with preference harvesting,” Raue said.

“Team Hakim won a seat with just 0.4 per cent [of the primary vote] in 2020, and someone could do that again in 2024.”

Raue said this was more likely to happen in the election for councillors, than the mayor.

The flow of preferences is not as strong for the leadership team as it is not automatic, but it could still impact on Reece’s chances, he said.

As the incumbent lord mayor, Reece is seen by many as the frontrunner – so many candidates directed their preferences away from him and his team. Rivals Wood, Hakim and the Greens’ Roxane Ingleton all placed Reece towards the bottom of their preferences allocations.

Reece, a Labor Party member and former adviser to Julia Gillard, preferenced the Liberal Party, serial candidate Gary Morgan, the Rip Up The Bike Lanes ticket and Animal Justice Party ahead of Labor. Ingleton, Hakim and Wood are all at the bottom of his allocation.

“Every vote in this election will be vital, and I urge everyone to consider carefully where they send their preferences,” Reece said.

Wood directed his preferences to Labor and the Greens first, then to smaller independents such as Voices for Melbourne, the Animal Justice Party and Hakim before Anthony Koutoufides and Reece. In turn, Labor preferenced Wood ahead of Reece.

Koutoufides is directing preferences to Morgan, the Liberals and Hakim ahead of Reece, Wood and the Greens.

The deals have divided the candidates into two groups: the first is Reece, Koutoufides, Morgan and Rip Up the Bike Lanes; the second Wood, Labor, the Greens, Hakim, Voices for Melbourne and Animal Justice.

Long-term council analyst Ray Collins said Hakim was a key beneficiary of this divide.

“If Hakim gets a primary vote of more than 5 per cent, he is in with a good chance,” said Collins, who has acted for a variety of tickets over 40 years including giving strategic preference advice to several candidates ahead of this election.

“He gets the combined vote of the Voices for Melbourne candidate and the Animal Justice Party and his own primaries and because of the fold up, he will be the beneficiary of the lower vote capture.”

If Hakim out-polls the Rip Up the Bike Lanes ticket, Collins said he could be in front of Labor and get its preferences – then “come down the middle” ahead of the Greens to become lord mayor.

Collins said the preference deals could also result in Koutoufides being elected as lord mayor.

“If Kouta’s primary vote is superior to Gary Morgan and the Liberals combined, he then becomes the major player,” he said.

“On the other side of the coin, if Reece polls enough votes to be higher than Kouta, at the point Kouta gets the Morgan and Liberal preferences, then Reece is the beneficiary of that.”

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Intaj Khan, who is running as the deputy lord mayoral candidate for Koutoufides, said the preferences from Morgan and the Liberals meant his team could win.

“Arron Wood has OK preferences but he has a problem with Jamal [Hakim] as his preferences mean there is a chance the Greens will go to Jamal and Jamal will get up,” he said. “It is unbelievable.”

Analyst Kos Samaras, who has conducted research for Wood’s campaign, said Koutoufides had “a pretty good deal in place in terms of preferences”.

Samaras said Wood, Reece and Koutoufides were the frontrunners.

“The question is will one of the others harvest enough preferences to jump over the others?” he said. “Is there a dark horse? Yes [Hakim] probably is one.”

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