U.S. Representative Thomas Massie is favored in polling and prediction odds to defeat his Trump-backed challenger Ed Gallrein in the upcoming Republican primary for Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District.
Massie, a libertarian-leaning conservative, has broken with President Donald Trump’s administration on matters like the Iran war and the Justice Department’s handling of the Epstein files. Trump’s endorsement carries weight in Republican primaries, as polls show he remains popular with the party’s base despite his declining approval among Democrats and independents—and the Kentucky primary will test the extent of his influence against a well-known incumbent.
Newsweek reached out to the Massie and Gallrein campaigns for comment via email.
Thomas Massie vs. Ed Gallrein: What Polls Show
As the GOP primary inches closer, the latest polling of the race gives Massie a slight lead over Gallrein, but still signals a close battle.
A Big Data Poll survey gave Massie a nearly 5-point lead over Gallrein. Massie received support from 52.4 percent of respondents, while 47.6 percent said they would vote for Gallrein. It surveyed 433 registered likely voters from April 3-7, with a sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
The poll’s director, Rich Baris, wrote in the memo the district, which is based around Northern Kentucky and includes the suburbs of Cincinnati, Ohio, is “known for its independent streak.”
Another poll from Quantus Insights gave Massie a lead, but it found that undecided voters were numerous enough to alter the race’s direction. It surveyed 438 likely Republican primary voters on April 6 and April 7 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
It found Massie with 46.8 percent support to Gallrein’s 37.7 percent, while 14 percent said they were undecided.
The poll found that 51.4 percent of respondents viewed Massie favorably, compared with 39.8 percent who said the same of Gallrein. Meanwhile, 46.4 percent expressed an unfavorable opinion of Massie and 38.3 percent did so for Gallrein.
Only 2.3 percent of respondents said they had not heard enough about Massie to form an opinion, while 21.9 percent said the same about Gallrein. Massie is running in a district where his “maverick status could help rather than hurt him,” D. Stephen Voss, professor of political science at the University of Kentucky, told Newsweek.
“Kentucky’s 4th District has its central mass in the Kentucky Bump, which is to say in the counties bordering Cincinnati. Voters there are more mobilized and, on the Republican side, more ideological than found in the sort of places where Trump’s people have easily defeated Republicans who’ve exhibited signs of independence,” he said. “Massie gives voice to a liberty-republican orientation that’s broadly popular in his district.”
What Do Prediction Markets Show?
Massie also has an advantage over Gallrein in prediction markets. The incumbent congressman has a 72 percent chance on both Kalshi and Polymarket of defeating his primary challenger.
Prediction markets allow participants to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real‑money wagers into probability estimates. Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment.
How Thomas Massie and Donald Trump’s Relationship Frayed
Massie and Trump clashed in March 2020 after the Kentucky Republican voted against the Save Our Workers Bill, a $2 trillion coronavirus relief package. Trump, at the time, called him a “third rate Grandstander,” urging the GOP to “throw Massie out” of their party in a post to X, then Twitter.
Four years later, in the lead-up to the 2024 presidential election, Massie endorsed Trump’s campaign.
He said Trump would “put Americans first by securing our liberties at home and preventing needless wars abroad” and “make America Healthy Again by empowering small farmers and taking on special interests that have corrupted our healthcare system” in a statement widely reported in October 2024.
But their relationship has since frayed.
“The relationship between Massie and Trump has steadily deteriorated,” Voss said. “Trump shows little tolerance for dissent, including when it’s motivated by conservative principles. By the time the Epstein files started stealing headlines, Trump had targeted Massie so many times that it just made sense for the Congressman to take the gloves off and fight back.”
Massie has voted against parts of Trump’s agenda including the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which passed Congress last year. The Kentucky Republican, known for a more libertarian approach to global affairs, has also opposed Trump’s foreign policy actions including military strikes on Iran. He supported a War Powers Resolution aimed to curb Trump’s ability to declare war with Iran.
The Epstein files have also become a sticking point in their relationship.
Massie led an effort alongside Democratic Representative Ro Khanna of California to force the Justice Department to release the files related to Epstein, a sex offender and disgraced financier who died by suicide in a New York City federal jail in 2019 while awaiting trial on charges of sex trafficking.
Trump has repeatedly attacked Massie on social media.
“I predict that ‘Representative’ Thomas Massie will go down as the WORST Republican Congressman in the long and fabled history of the United States Congress, even worse than Crazy Liz Chaney [sic], Cryin’ Adam Kinzinger, and Marjorie “Traitor” Brown (Remember, Green turns to Brown under stress!). They are all misfits and losers, but Massie, who is running against a great American Patriot in the Kentucky Primary, will hopefully lose BIG,” the president wrote on March 11.
Trump has been a vocal proponent of Gallrein, a farmer and veteran who has garnered support from other prominent Kentucky Republicans such as Representative Andy Barr. Senator Rand Paul is backing Massie.
When Is Kentucky’s Primary?
Election Day in Kentucky is May 19.
Whoever wins the primary will be significant favorites against a Democrat in the general election. The district is solidly Republican, backing Trump by more than 35 points in the 2024 presidential race.
Read the full article here
