Florida’s housing inventory is rising quickly, suggesting that the state might be on the brink of turning into a buyer’s market, according to experts. But as prices remain high and mortgage rates are still hovering around the 7 percent mark, buyers remain reluctant, leaving homes for sale to sit idle on the market.
Why It Matters
Florida’s housing market boomed during the pandemic, when an influx of out-of-state people moved to the state looking for affordable homes, a lower cost of living, and nice weather. The Sunshine State approved a slew of new building projects to meet the explosion in demand for homes, but the end of the pandemic, skyrocketing prices and high mortgage rates dampened sales in the past couple of years.
The new inventory landing on the market is struggling to find willing buyers. Experts think that the Florida housing market might finally be stabilizing after the pandemic boom, especially the most overvalued metropolitan areas like Tampa and Jacksonville.
What To Know
Inventory in the Sunshine State is back above pre-pandemic levels, recent data show. Active housing inventory for sale in Florida was up by 5 percent in January compared to January 2019, according to ResiClub’s analysis of data from Realtor.com. It was the third-highest increase after that of the District of Columbia (+67 percent) and Texas (+13 percent).
Overall, Florida counted a total of 157,221 active listings last month—the highest number in the country, followed by Texas with 102,552. In January 2019, the state had a total of 150,118 listed for sale.
Compared to January 2024, when the state counted a total of 118,163 home listings, active inventory for sale was up 33 percent.
While there are more homes for sale, Florida’s population has also grown since before the pandemic: according to Census Bureau data, the Sunshine State counted a total of 21,538,192 residents on April 1 2020—by July 1, 2024, this number had gone up to 23,372,215.
Even as demand for homes should be higher, properties are selling at a much slower pace than they’re flooding the market. According to real estate brokerage Redfin, the number of homes sold in the state rose 7.9 percent in December compared to a year earlier, while the number of homes for sale rose 22.7 percent.
Stubbornly high prices might have something to do with buyers remaining on the sidelines of the market. In December, the median sale price of a home in the Sunshine State was 1.8 percent higher than a year earlier, at $411,100. Mortgage rates are also still high: as of January 30, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.95 percent, according to Freddie Mac, down 0.01 percent from a week earlier and up 0.32 percent from a year earlier.
In South Florida, where new rules around aging condos have triggered an explosion in condo listings, the situation is particularly critical. Naples News reported that Collier County’s unsold home inventory is now nearly 200 percent higher than in 2019; in St. Petersburg, is close to 44 percent higher. In Lee County, the number of unsold homes is now close to 150 percent higher than just a year ago; in West Palm Beach, it’s over 55 percent higher.
“In Naples and Marco Island, the median household income is $91,000,” Southwest Florida-based Red Fortress Property Management’s Michael McVety told the newspaper. “The income needed to afford homes in the area is $188,000. This creates a 105 percent affordability gap. Only 30 percent of local residents can afford homes, leaving the market heavily dependent on external buyers.”
What People Are Saying
Dr. Brad O’Connor, Florida Realtors chief economist, said: “Inventory is still largely moving along an upward trajectory so we should continue to watch it as we move into the spring buying season here in Florida. […] It will take significantly more inventory to threaten the large gains in price appreciation that occurred in between 2020 and 2022.”
Lance Lambert, co-founder of ResidentialClub, wrote: “In Florida, the biggest inventory increases initially over the past two years were concentrated in sections of Southwest Florida. In particular, in markets like Cape Coral, Punta Gorda, and Fort Myers, which were hard-hit by Hurricane Ian in September 2022.”
He added: “This combination of increased housing supply for sale—the damaged homes coming up for sale—coupled with strained demand—the result of spiked home prices, spiked mortgage rates, higher insurance premiums, and higher HOAs—translated into market softening across much of Southwest Florida. However, the inventory increases in Florida now expands far beyond SWFL. Markets like Jacksonville and Orlando are also above pre-pandemic levels, as are many coastal pockets along Florida’s Atlantic Ocean side.”
What Happens Next
A quick rise in active listings might indicate that a market is weakening and prices will soften. A majority of experts expect weaker home price growth in Florida throughout 2025, if not outright declines in some of the state’s metros.
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