As pressure builds on Congress to punish members facing ethics and misconduct allegations, House Republicans are confronting a problem that goes well beyond questions of accountability: the risk that expulsions themselves could cost the party control of the chamber.
With Republicans holding one of the narrowest House margins in modern history, even a small number of vacancies could immediately undermine Speaker Mike Johnson’s ability to govern—and force the GOP to gamble on special elections, where Democrats have recently overperformed.
Republicans currently control 217 seats, alongside one independent who caucuses with them, giving the party exactly 218 votes—the bare minimum needed for a majority in the 435‑member House. Democrats hold 214 seats, with three vacancies. That leaves Johnson with no cushion for defections, absences, or procedural missteps.
Newsweek contacted House Democratic and Republican leadership for comment.
Calls for Expulsion Grow From Both Parties
Calls to expel lawmakers have intensified in recent weeks, drawing support from members of both parties and expanding beyond a single case.
Democratic Representative Eric Swalwell suspended his campaign for California governor following reporting by the San Francisco Chronicle and CNN that detailed allegations of sexual misconduct involving multiple women. Swalwell has denied the allegations, but lawmakers from both parties have nonetheless called for his resignation or urged the House to consider expulsion.
The renewed focus on Swalwell has also revived scrutiny of other members facing ethics or misconduct issues. Texas Republican Tony Gonzales admitted to having an affair with a staffer who later died by suicide, while Florida Republican Cory Mills is under investigation by the House Ethics Committee over allegations of sexual misconduct or dating violence, as well as potential campaign finance violations.
Gonzales announced in March that he would not seek re‑election after pressure from House GOP leadership, though Johnson had previously stopped short of calling for his resignation, saying in February, “I don’t think it’s time to call for resignation.”
A growing number of Democrats have publicly supported expelling both Swalwell and Gonzales, joined by Republicans including Representatives Byron Donalds and Anna Paulina Luna, both of Florida. New York Republican Representative Mike Lawler has also added Democratic Representative Sheila Cherfilus‑McCormick of Florida to the list of lawmakers he believes should resign or face expulsion.
Last month, a House Ethics subcommittee found that Cherfilus‑McCormick committed 25 ethics violations related to the alleged misuse of federal disaster relief funds to support her election campaign. She is scheduled to face a sanctions hearing before the full Ethics Committee on April 21 and is also facing a criminal trial related to the matter.
Former New York Republican Representative George Santos, who was expelled from the House in 2023, weighed in on social media, urging the lawmakers to resign rather than face expulsion. “There is NO dignity in being expelled,” Santos wrote, adding that he would have handled his own case differently if given another chance.
Other lawmakers echoed that sentiment. Luna said resignation would preserve “some sliver of personal dignity,” warning that members who refused to step aside would face expulsion. South Carolina Republican Representative Nancy Mace also called for swift action, writing on X that Swalwell, Gonzales, Mills, and Cherfilus‑McCormick were “unfit to serve” and should resign immediately.
How Potential Expulsions Could Hurt the GOP
Expelling all four members currently facing these calls would seemingly keep the House’s partisan split in balance—two Democrats and two Republicans—but resulting vacancies would create vulnerabilities for the GOP.
If even two Republican lawmakers were expelled or otherwise removed from office, the GOP would instantly fall below the majority threshold, regardless of how or when the seats are filled. Vacancies do not lower the number of votes required to control the House, meaning Republicans would lose their majority before a single special election ballot is cast.
Not all seats carry the same political risk. Swalwell’s California district and Cherfilus‑McCormick’s South Florida seat are widely viewed as safely Democratic, making party control there unlikely to change even in a special election. But the calculus becomes far murkier in districts held by Mills and Gonzales.
Gonzales represents Texas’ 23rd District, which President Donald Trump carried by roughly 15.5 points in 2024, while Mills’ Florida district backed Trump by about 12.5 points. In a conventional general election, those margins would suggest Republican comfort. In special elections, recent history tells a different story.
Over the past several months, Democrats have frequently overperformed presidential results in special elections, including in districts Trump won by double digits. Lower turnout, heightened national attention, and the tendency for voters to use specials to send a message to the party in power have all contributed to results that defy topline partisan labels.
That trend means Republicans cannot assume that even strongly Trump‑leaning districts would be easy holds if vacancies trigger special elections—particularly if those elections are framed around scandal or congressional dysfunction.
Timing adds another layer to the calculus, though the risk is uneven. Governors control when special elections are called, and in Republican‑led states like Florida and Texas, vacancies would likely be filled relatively quickly. Even so, any period without seated members would immediately drop Republicans below the 218 votes needed for a House majority, complicating Johnson’s ability to manage the floor while those races play out.
For House leaders, then, the question is not simply whether expulsions are warranted, but whether the party can afford the consequences. Losing control of the floor—even temporarily—would weaken Republican leverage on must‑pass legislation, intensify internal divisions, and hand Democrats new procedural opportunities.
What Happens Next
The timing of any expulsions remains uncertain, with no fixed schedule for House action and each case moving on a different procedural track.
Democrats are currently favored to win the House in November, according to polling-based election forecasts and prediction markets, with Republicans slightly favored to retain their majority in the Senate.
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